Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Noir
Should I ship a Noir Perma Death game?
Perma Death + Noir
Only 12 developers shipped a Noir Perma Death game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 22 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $30 (exactly $30) |
|---|---|
| Median | $179 (exactly $179) |
| Top 25% | $1.1k (exactly $1,076) |
| Top 5% | $20k (exactly $20,380) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 29 |
| Announced | 22 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $2.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Perma Death
- Price point
- $2.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 9 games average 84% positive over 106 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Strong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + PiratesFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + 3D PlatformerFair
Comparable games
Race The Sun 2013 · $592k 
Fears to Fathom - Norwood Hitchhike 2022 · $484k 
I See Red 2022 · $32k 
Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef 2026 · $20k 
THE BYTE 2022 · $11k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Race The Sun | older | $9.99 | 1,974 93% | 59k | $592k (exactly $591,608) | Flippfly LLC |
| | Fears to Fathom - Norwood Hitchhike | older | $4.99 | 3,230 87% | 97k | $484k (exactly $483,531) | Rayll |
| | I See Red | older | $9.99 | 106 90% | 3.2k | $32k (exactly $31,768) | Whiteboard Games |
| | Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef | $9.99 | 68 80% | 2.0k | $20k (exactly $20,380) | The Fine Arc | |
| | THE BYTE | older | $24.99 | 15 80% | 450 | $11k (exactly $11,246) | AVAKE |
 | Moi Mei 2 | older | $9.99 | 20 90% | 600 | $6.0k (exactly $5,994) | FreeAnimals_Software |
 | Aberration Analyst | older | $4.99 | 17 82% | 510 | $2.5k (exactly $2,545) | Schmidt Workshops |
 | Under The Ghost Mountain | · EA older | $1.99 | 27 88% | 810 | $1.6k (exactly $1,612) | liangxiegame |
 | /R - A Neurodivergent Thriller | $9.99 | 5 80% | 150 | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) | negative_development | |
 | CurrentDay | $2.99 | 12 100% | 360 | $1.1k (exactly $1,076) | HB Studio | |
 | Intrusive Thoughts | $2.00 | 9 100% | 270 | $540 (exactly $540) | thatguyinashed | |
 | 100 for Justice | $5.99 | 2 50% | 60 | $359 (exactly $359) | Cartoon Rocket Games | |
 | DeadEye: A Roguelike Shooter | · EA | $2.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $179 (exactly $179) | AliceCatto |
 | Sporeborn Dark | $0.99 | 6 83% | 180 | $178 (exactly $178) | ValiantLight | |
 | NOIRCOTICS | $2.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $90 (exactly $90) | NOIR | |
 | Monochrome Nemesis | $0.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $30 (exactly $30) | BidouGameStudio | |
 | 幸运英雄LuckyHero | $8.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | 阁楼实验室-Attic Laboratory |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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