Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzle PlatformerPuzzle Platformer + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Puzzle Platformer?

Puzzle Platformer + Noir

Only 19 developers shipped a Noir Puzzle Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Darkway: Murder of King Mere, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $18k, ×39 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 41 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 41 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle Platformer + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $35k → $1.5k → $269 → $5.4k → $359 → $3.4k → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle Platformer + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $149 (exactly $149)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 5% $19k (exactly $18,697)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 81
Announced 41
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Puzzle Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Puzzle, 2D Platformer
Price point
$3.49 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $3.49.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 271 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $420, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $18k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceFair41 devs · median $1.5k · 38 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair20 devs · median $1.1k · 26 announced
  3. + Life SimFair20 devs · median $657 · 21 announced
  4. + SimulationFair216 devs · median $479 · 181 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  6. + SokobanFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  7. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $9.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds26 devs · median $9.0k · 53 announced
  9. + MetroidvaniaPoor odds91 devs · median $5.3k · 264 announced
  10. + SwordplayPoor odds8 devs · median $4.2k · 19 announced
  11. + Split ScreenPoor odds24 devs · median $3.6k · 35 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds18 devs · median $3.0k · 80 announced

All 169 pairs on the Puzzle Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Contrast older $9.99 4,548 90% 136k $1.4M (exactly $1,363,036) Compulsion Games
Genesis Noir older $14.99 1,694 79% 51k $762k (exactly $761,792) Feral Cat Den
FRAMED Collection older $9.99 2,336 94% 70k $700k (exactly $700,099) Loveshack Entertainment
LIBERATED older $19.99 679 77% 20k $407k (exactly $407,196) Atomic Wolf, L.INC
7th Sector older $10.99 643 72% 19k $212k (exactly $211,997) Носков Сергей
On Rusty Trails older $14.99 176 87% 5.3k $79k (exactly $79,147) Black Pants Studio
Desvelado older $6.99 352 98% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Valentín Zacarías, Pablo Cuello, Joacoy… (Valentín Zacarías, Pablo Cuello, Joacoyco)
Larcin Lazer older $9.99 241 99% 7.2k $72k (exactly $72,228) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini
FURRY SEX: Cabaret 💋🔞 older $6.99 299 71% 9.0k $63k (exactly $62,700) Furry Tails
Mess Adventures older $2.99 454 81% 14k $41k (exactly $40,724) Marvelous Games
Darkway: Murder of King Mere $7.99 78 97% 2.3k $19k (exactly $18,697) IM/MORTAL Studios, Pierce Papke / Ekpap
KIYO - Bunny Tyranny $14.99 23 100% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Pixel Rats
Sinheritance $4.99 54 94% 1.6k $8.1k (exactly $8,084) STIM GAMES
Cats Catching Mice: The Black and White World $4.99 23 95% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) Demistar
Bomb Squad $14.99 4 100% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) International Headquarters
Midnight Furry $0.99 58 96% 1.7k $1.7k (exactly $1,723) Soft Paws Entertainment, LavenderKitty69
To the Basement. Before $6.99 8 87% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) HugePixel
Locked In $5.99 5 40% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Gerch Interactive
The Outer Side $1.99 14 100% 420 $836 (exactly $836) Aquatic Games
RE_ALLOC $3.49 4 25% 120 $419 (exactly $419) nomorevalid, yekbun

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.