Do I ship it?

Games › Top-Down Shooter › Top-Down Shooter + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Noir

Of 26 developers who shipped a Noir Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $680, ×1.4 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×564 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 24 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 24 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $776 → $683 → $479 → $6.6k (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $683 (exactly $683)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 5% $268k (exactly $268,021)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 58
Announced 24
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Procedural Generation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 9,189 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $680, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Precinct 2025 · $7.1M Intravenous 2021 · $1.7M OTXO 2023 · $1.5M Endoparasitic 2022 · $878k Hell is Others 2022 · $446k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Intravenous older $19.99 2,872 91% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,722,338) Explosive Squat Games
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
Endoparasitic older $9.99 2,928 93% 88k $878k (exactly $877,522) Miziziziz
Hell is Others older $14.99 991 73% 30k $446k (exactly $445,653) Strelka Games, Yonder
Splatter - Zombiecalypse Now older $6.99 2,098 89% 63k $440k (exactly $439,951) Dreamworlds
Jackal $14.99 596 88% 18k $268k (exactly $268,021) Transhuman Design
Kusan: City of Wolves $14.99 295 89% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) CIRCLEfromDOT
PROHIBEAST $34.99 121 57% 3.6k $127k (exactly $127,014) SUPER AC
Glitchpunk $19.99 174 47% 5.2k $104k (exactly $104,348) Dark Lord
Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef $9.99 68 80% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) The Fine Arc
TOUHOU RHAPSODY OF MOON RABBIT · EA $9.99 47 82% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) 瓦尔基里游戏
Tackle for Loss $10.99 20 100% 600 $6.6k (exactly $6,594) Indifferent Penguin
DeadWire $9.99 18 100% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Shotgun Anaconda
Bullet Noir $11.99 13 100% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) WOLCEN Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.