Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Noir

Of 61 developers who shipped a Noir Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 181 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $54k, ×87 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 181 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 181 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $1.8k → $3.3k → $900 → $1.8k → $898 → $300 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 5% $55k (exactly $54,845)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 201
Announced 181
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,848 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $54k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 181 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mafia II: Definitive Edition older $29.99 28,886 74% 867k $26M (exactly $25,988,734) Hangar 13, D3T
Alice: Madness Returns older $9.99 27,795 90% 834k $8.3M (exactly $8,330,162) Spicy Horse Games
Lorelei and the Laser Eyes older $24.99 3,108 93% 93k $2.3M (exactly $2,330,068) Simogo
BUSTAFELLOWS older $39.99 968 86% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,161,310) NIPPON CULTURAL BROADCASTING EXTEND INC.
Endoparasitic older $9.99 2,928 93% 88k $878k (exactly $877,522) Miziziziz
The Saboteur™ older $9.99 2,790 91% 84k $836k (exactly $836,163) Pandemic Studios
CYAN BRAIN $14.99 1,463 89% 44k $658k (exactly $657,911) NEKOUJI
The Last Case of Benedict Fox Definitive Edition older $24.99 786 71% 24k $589k (exactly $589,264) Plot Twist
LIBERATED older $19.99 679 77% 20k $407k (exactly $407,196) Atomic Wolf, L.INC
Crimson Oath $14.99 750 82% 23k $337k (exactly $337,275) Parry Frames Team
PROHIBEAST $34.99 121 57% 3.6k $127k (exactly $127,014) SUPER AC
Cyberpunk SFX $9.99 183 83% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Whale Rock Games
DeTechtive 2112 $10.99 60 46% 1.8k $20k (exactly $19,782) M11 Studio
Outbreak: Shades of Horror Chromatic Split $24.99 24 50% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) Dead Drop Studios LLC
Scary Shadow Spot - Last Farewell $9.99 50 96% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) Daniele Doesn't Matter
TOUHOU RHAPSODY OF MOON RABBIT · EA $9.99 47 82% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) 瓦尔基里游戏
DOOMED Detective Game $6.99 65 46% 2.0k $14k (exactly $13,630) Azikton Studio
Serra de Deus $4.99 85 94% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,724) David Pateti

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.