Do I ship it?

Games2D Platformer2D Platformer + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir 2D Platformer?

2D Platformer + Noir

Of 39 developers who shipped a Noir 2D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.7 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×250 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 70 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 70 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Platformer + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.4k → $300 → $898 → $386 → $1.1k → $598 → $719 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Platformer + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $356 (exactly $356)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,160)
Top 5% $119k (exactly $118,668)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 126
Announced 70
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
2D Platformer; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 2,142 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  2. + VampiresFair47 devs · median $1.9k · 50 announced
  3. + MechsFair33 devs · median $1.8k · 44 announced
  4. + PinballFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 9 announced
  5. + WesternFair10 devs · median $1.3k · 13 announced
  6. + CRPGFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorFair178 devs · median $1.0k · 185 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  9. + MiningFair38 devs · median $748 · 45 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  11. + Party-Based RPGFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  12. + Tactical RPGFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced

All 226 pairs on the 2D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Katana ZERO older $14.99 66,341 97% 2.0M $30M (exactly $29,833,548) Askiisoft
CYAN BRAIN $14.99 1,463 89% 44k $658k (exactly $657,911) NEKOUJI
The Last Case of Benedict Fox Definitive Edition older $24.99 786 71% 24k $589k (exactly $589,264) Plot Twist
Traditional Chinese Medicine Simulator · EA older $14.99 304 96% 9.1k $137k (exactly $136,709) 曲波
Kats Trigger · EA $8.99 440 88% 13k $119k (exactly $118,668) GIX
GravNewton older $9.99 379 78% 11k $114k (exactly $113,586) JOZGamer, Hatus Quemuel
NINJA SLAYER NEO-SAITAMA IN FLAMES(ニンジャスレイヤー ネオサイタマ炎上) older $19.99 162 39% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Skeleton Crew Studio
On Rusty Trails older $14.99 176 87% 5.3k $79k (exactly $79,147) Black Pants Studio
Desvelado older $6.99 352 98% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Valentín Zacarías, Pablo Cuello, Joacoy… (Valentín Zacarías, Pablo Cuello, Joacoyco)
Larcin Lazer older $9.99 241 99% 7.2k $72k (exactly $72,228) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini
Dark Bone Prison $5.99 84 95% 2.5k $15k (exactly $15,095) Bunny Moon Shady
KIYO - Bunny Tyranny $14.99 23 100% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Pixel Rats
血姬:双生 (Vampiress: Eternal Duet) $9.99 24 58% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) 织界者 (Realm Weaver Studio)
刑死のためのカウンセル $7.99 28 96% 840 $6.7k (exactly $6,712) 薬草神話
Burial of Shortcake $4.99 31 83% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) NANTEDOW
Street Cleaner 3 $15.99 8 100% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) Creaky Lantern Games
Cats Catching Mice: The Black and White World $4.99 23 95% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) Demistar
GUN.DOG.REVENGE $4.00 18 100% 540 $2.2k (exactly $2,160) MEWSTURBO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.