Should I ship a Noir Idler?
Idler + Noir
Only 17 developers shipped a Noir Idler in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Just One More Link, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 26 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $238 (exactly $238) |
|---|---|
| Median | $299 (exactly $299) |
| Top 25% | $1.7k (exactly $1,676) |
| Top 5% | $3.8k (exactly $3,775) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 33 |
| Announced | 26 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $3.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Strategy, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $3.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Abstract, Minimalist
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 102 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + FarmingStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashFair
- + DrivingFair
- + LootFair
- + FPSFair
- + Turn-Based CombatFair
- + Turn-Based StrategyFair
- + Dynamic NarrationFair
- + Dark FantasyFair
- + CapitalismFair
- + SwordplayFair
Comparable games
Blacklist Mafia 2024 · $19k 
Just One More Link 2026 · $3.8k 
Streetlight Syndicate 2026 · $3.6k 
HeroInc 2026 · EA · $2.7k 
Gunma's Ambition -You and me are Gunma- Reiwa 2nd national census edition 2025 · $2.2k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Blacklist Mafia | older | $9.99 | 65 83% | 2.0k | $19k (exactly $19,480) | VICTORIA Games |
| | Just One More Link | $6.99 | 18 94% | 540 | $3.8k (exactly $3,775) | Blagine | |
| | Streetlight Syndicate | $6.99 | 17 82% | 510 | $3.6k (exactly $3,565) | BeagleGuy | |
| | HeroInc | · EA | $8.99 | 10 90% | 300 | $2.7k (exactly $2,697) | Nue Games |
| | Gunma's Ambition -You and me are Gunma- Reiwa 2nd national census edition | $3.99 | 18 100% | 540 | $2.2k (exactly $2,155) | RucKyGAMES | |
 | 消灭魔王军 Destroy the Demon Army | older | $5.00 | 13 38% | 390 | $2.0k (exactly $1,950) | Blueprint Core |
 | Idle Hero Siege | $3.99 | 14 42% | 420 | $1.7k (exactly $1,676) | 光鸽 | |
 | 天道轮回：我的修仙梦 | $5.99 | 8 37% | 240 | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) | Kaka Ku Games Inc. | |
 | Where Ferrets 雪貂在哪里 | older | $0.99 | 43 95% | 1.3k | $1.3k (exactly $1,277) | 冷笑黑妖 |
 | Ambient Dark | · EA | $4.99 | 8 100% | 240 | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) | Crystalline Green Ltd. |
 | RE_ALLOC | $3.49 | 4 25% | 120 | $419 (exactly $419) | nomorevalid, yekbun | |
 | Pixel Way: Prologue | $4.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $299 (exactly $299) | Levelborn | |
 | Coin Devotee | $2.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $269 (exactly $269) | Argue with Sheep |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.