Do I ship it?

GamesManagementManagement + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Management game?

Management + Noir

Only 18 developers shipped a Noir Management game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Hollywood Animal, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 54 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper, while momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 54 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $240 → $0 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $4,046)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 43
Announced 54
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 700% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Management; all of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 3,978 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $4.0k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 54 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
This Is the Police older $14.99 9,153 82% 275k $4.1M (exactly $4,116,104) Weappy Studio
This Is the Police 2 older $14.99 5,330 77% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) Weappy Studio
Hollywood Animal · EA $19.99 3,845 73% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) Weappy Wholesome
City of Gangsters older $29.99 1,332 73% 40k $1.2M (exactly $1,198,400) SomaSim
The Shrouded Isle older $12.99 1,166 71% 35k $454k (exactly $454,390) Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau,… (Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau, Tanya Short)
For the People older $16.99 729 73% 22k $372k (exactly $371,571) Brezg Studio
Black Closet older $19.99 246 91% 7.4k $148k (exactly $147,526) Hanako Games
Staffer Reborn older $4.99 959 95% 29k $144k (exactly $143,562) Team Tetrapod
Interrogation: You will be deceived older $12.99 321 77% 9.6k $125k (exactly $125,094) Critique Gaming
My Hotel $16.99 40 30% 1.2k $20k (exactly $20,388) BrainSwapper
Grand Cru: The Wine Maker $14.99 37 86% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) hAi Corp
Under His Eyes $9.99 17 29% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) HAS Games
NO ENTRY $8.99 15 86% 450 $4.0k (exactly $4,046) Jeistar
HeroInc · EA $8.99 10 90% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Nue Games
A Home Is Safe $7.99 5 80% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Beto Damian
Noire Police Detective: Gangster Drama Simulator · EA $5.99 4 25% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Meraki Tech
100 for Justice $5.99 2 50% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Cartoon Rocket Games
Renegade Cat Marbles $2.99 3 0% 90 $269 (exactly $269) LetsGMOMG

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.