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Should I ship a Noir Physics game?
Physics + Noir
Of 23 developers who shipped a Noir Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 13 developers shipped in the last year and 31 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $30 (exactly $30) |
|---|---|
| Median | $270 (exactly $270) |
| Top 25% | $2.0k (exactly $1,973) |
| Top 5% | $11k (exactly $11,324) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 23 |
| Released games | 58 |
| Announced | 31 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Arcade
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Retro, Atmospheric, Funny
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 468 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Deliver At All Costs 2025 · $288k 
illWill 2023 · $167k 
Squad 51 vs. the Flying Saucers 2022 · $119k 
On Rusty Trails 2016 · $79k 
Crowd Simulator 2019 · $36k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Deliver At All Costs | $29.99 | 320 73% | 9.6k | $288k (exactly $287,904) | Studio Far Out Games | |
| | illWill | older | $19.99 | 279 91% | 8.4k | $167k (exactly $167,316) | Slava Bushuev |
| | Squad 51 vs. the Flying Saucers | older | $19.99 | 199 91% | 6.0k | $119k (exactly $119,340) | Loomiarts, Fehorama Filmes |
| | On Rusty Trails | older | $14.99 | 176 87% | 5.3k | $79k (exactly $79,147) | Black Pants Studio |
| | Crowd Simulator | older | $2.99 | 399 71% | 12k | $36k (exactly $35,790) | ZHANG FAN, SHEN JIAWEI |
 | The Atlas Mystery: A VR Puzzle Game | older | $14.99 | 47 87% | 1.4k | $21k (exactly $21,136) | Top Right Corner |
 | Anoxemia | older | $8.99 | 43 53% | 1.3k | $12k (exactly $11,597) | BSK Games |
 | Tails Noir: Rebel Rush | older | $4.94 | 78 98% | 2.3k | $12k (exactly $11,560) | Soup with Friends, Eggnut |
 | Midnight | older | $4.99 | 77 75% | 2.3k | $12k (exactly $11,527) | Petite Games |
 | Detective Penguin | $6.99 | 54 87% | 1.6k | $11k (exactly $11,324) | That Other Fish, That Fish | |
 | AI Games | $59.99 | 2 50% | 60 | $3.6k (exactly $3,599) | SUNYU Games | |
 | Cats Catching Mice: The Black and White World | $4.99 | 23 95% | 690 | $3.4k (exactly $3,443) | Demistar | |
 | Ropeman | $5.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) | 1K Project | |
 | ENDSTATION | $2.99 | 22 95% | 660 | $2.0k (exactly $1,973) | bal_duin | |
 | Slitherise | $5.99 | 9 100% | 270 | $1.6k (exactly $1,617) | Utayo | |
 | SCP: Pale Weaver | $5.99 | 4 0% | 120 | $719 (exactly $719) | why so serious? | |
 | Gravity Block 2 | $1.29 | 13 100% | 390 | $503 (exactly $503) | Atthus Games | |
 | Stickman 3D Wingsuit DELUXE | $1.99 | 7 71% | 210 | $418 (exactly $418) | Yurii Nikshych |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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