Do I ship it?

GamesTabletopTabletop + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Tabletop game?

Tabletop + Noir

Of 20 developers who shipped a Noir Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 27 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 27 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $776 → $4.9k → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $2.0k (exactly $1,973)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 43
Announced 27
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Tabletop; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Battler, Board Game
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 1990's, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 7,745 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $270, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  8. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  9. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  11. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Betrayal At Club Low older $9.99 538 97% 16k $161k (exactly $161,239) Cosmo D Studios
System Crash older $14.99 250 83% 7.5k $112k (exactly $112,425) Rogue Moon Studios
Divine's Howl $9.99 169 89% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,649) Sense13 Studio
Sunshine Shuffle older $9.99 156 76% 4.7k $47k (exactly $46,753) Strange Scaffold
Dance of Cards older $9.99 93 88% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) GoodMorningMrFrog
Cheater's Table · EA $6.99 69 95% 2.1k $14k (exactly $14,469) Lagari
Detective Solitaire. Butler Story older $14.99 13 76% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Somer Games
Detective Solitaire Inspector Magic older $14.99 12 75% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Somer Games
Battle Of The Abyss $4.99 33 93% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) 1029studio
ENDSTATION $2.99 22 95% 660 $2.0k (exactly $1,973) bal_duin
天道轮回:我的修仙梦 $5.99 8 37% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Kaka Ku Games Inc.
Tilting - A Noir Poker Career $3.99 4 50% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Low Light Games
HEXADEL $0.99 15 86% 450 $446 (exactly $446) Planetary Gears
UNKNOWN FACES · EA $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Nerux Studio
Coin Devotee $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Argue with Sheep

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.