Do I ship it?

Games › Beat 'em up › Beat 'em up + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Beat 'em up?

Beat 'em up + Noir

Only 8 developers shipped a Noir Beat 'em up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, TEXNOPLAZM, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $6.6k against a market of $480. 22 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 13.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 22 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Beat 'em up + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $1.0k → $7.2k
Outcomes for Beat 'em up + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,160)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,594)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $31,180)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 25
Announced 22
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Beat 'em up
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Beat 'em up
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 980 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $31k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 22 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Beat 'em up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $76k · 13 announced
  2. + RhythmFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  3. + CollectathonFair25 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Score AttackFair36 devs · median $539 · 41 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair11 devs · median $537 · 8 announced
  6. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $416 · 19 announced
  7. + NinjaLong shot29 devs · median $359 · 30 announced
  8. + Combat RacingLong shot15 devs · median $89 · 15 announced
  9. + Character Action GamePoor odds12 devs · median $58k · 37 announced
  10. + LootPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 29 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds74 devs · median $11k · 125 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds45 devs · median $11k · 71 announced

All 126 pairs on the Beat 'em up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Lithium City 2020 · $69k Vengeance of Mr. Peppermint 2023 · $61k TEXNOPLAZM 2025 · EA · $31k Reloader: test_subject 2022 · $8.8k Hellwatch 2024 · $8.1k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lithium City older $7.99 286 92% 8.6k $69k (exactly $68,554) Nico Tuason
Vengeance of Mr. Peppermint older $19.99 101 70% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) Hack The Publisher
TEXNOPLAZM · EA $15.99 65 98% 2.0k $31k (exactly $31,180) Mothership Loudspeakerz
Reloader: test_subject older $0.99 295 92% 8.9k $8.8k (exactly $8,762) Nevertheless Studio
Hellwatch $9.99 27 44% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) FG
血姬：双生 (Vampiress: Eternal Duet) $9.99 24 58% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) 织界者 (Realm Weaver Studio)
Dark Alley Elf older $2.99 74 55% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) Projekt Wolfenstahl
Tackle for Loss $10.99 20 100% 600 $6.6k (exactly $6,594) Indifferent Penguin
北城捷運糾察隊(Northern City Metro Patrol) $3.00 49 83% 1.5k $4.4k (exactly $4,410) HoneyJamStudio
Stickman Killing Zombie older $2.99 39 84% 1.2k $3.5k (exactly $3,498) Yurii Nikshych
GUN.DOG.REVENGE $4.00 18 100% 540 $2.2k (exactly $2,160) MEWSTURBO
Heistfest · EA $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Amilcar Technologies
Mystic Origins $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Matthew Lalande

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.