Do I ship it?

Games › Shoot 'Em Up › Shoot 'Em Up + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Noir

Only 11 developers shipped a Noir Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kusan: City of Wolves, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×279 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 15 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $359 → $416 → $2.2k (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $416 (exactly $416)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 5% $133k (exactly $132,662)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 40
Announced 15
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 371 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $420, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

OTXO 2023 · $1.5M Angel at Dusk 2024 · $754k Arrest of a stone Buddha 2020 · $180k Kusan: City of Wolves 2026 · $133k Squad 51 vs. the Flying Saucers 2022 · $119k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
Angel at Dusk older $14.99 1,676 98% 50k $754k (exactly $753,697) Akiragoya
Arrest of a stone Buddha older $14.99 400 69% 12k $180k (exactly $179,880) yeo
Kusan: City of Wolves $14.99 295 89% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) CIRCLEfromDOT
Squad 51 vs. the Flying Saucers older $19.99 199 91% 6.0k $119k (exactly $119,340) Loomiarts, Fehorama Filmes
Soundodger 2 older $19.99 185 95% 5.6k $111k (exactly $110,944) Studio Bean
Reloader: test_subject older $0.99 295 92% 8.9k $8.8k (exactly $8,762) Nevertheless Studio
MAFIA: Family's Secret older $6.99 32 75% 960 $6.7k (exactly $6,710) Tails Games
Tackle for Loss $10.99 20 100% 600 $6.6k (exactly $6,594) Indifferent Penguin
Hunkenstein older $7.99 22 72% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) Oubliette
Bullet Noir $11.99 13 100% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) WOLCEN Studio
GUN.DOG.REVENGE $4.00 18 100% 540 $2.2k (exactly $2,160) MEWSTURBO
Miryam: The Polluted Land $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) 6.5F Studio
Opollo $0.99 14 85% 420 $416 (exactly $416) Planetary Gears
Invaders Evolutions $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Northbank Interactive
Protocol : Kill Switch $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Tiny TIm
Hollow Signal $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Dev-Solo Studio
PUP BOY COWBOY: Infinite Desert Edition $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) JaVaRwY, VGSharp

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.