Do I ship it?

Games › Action Roguelike › Action Roguelike + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Noir

Of 21 developers who shipped a Noir Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210, ×0.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. Revenue is down 95% on the market, with 32 games announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 32 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59 → $3.3k → $2.2k → $150 → $150 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,390)
Top 5% $57k (exactly $56,943)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 43
Announced 32
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 500% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2.5D, Dark Comedy, Dark Humor
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 737 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $210, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $56k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 32 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

OTXO 2023 · $1.5M Gunbrella 2023 · $414k Heading Out 2024 · $383k HOTEL BARCELONA 2025 · $242k Lovecraft's Untold Stories 2 2022 · $78k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
Gunbrella older $14.99 920 85% 28k $414k (exactly $413,724) doinksoft
Heading Out older $19.99 639 74% 19k $383k (exactly $383,208) Serious Sim, Crunching Koalas
HOTEL BARCELONA $29.99 269 71% 8.1k $242k (exactly $242,019) White Owls Inc.
Lovecraft's Untold Stories 2 older $19.99 130 37% 3.9k $78k (exactly $77,961) LLC Blini Games
Shana - Priestess of Tona $9.99 190 74% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Lustration Team
I See Red older $9.99 106 90% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Whiteboard Games
Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef $9.99 68 80% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) The Fine Arc
Dark Bone Prison $5.99 84 95% 2.5k $15k (exactly $15,095) Bunny Moon Shady
Happy Monster · EA $8.99 41 82% 1.2k $11k (exactly $11,058) Destined Game Studio
Undead West $7.99 35 82% 1.1k $8.4k (exactly $8,390) Deathless Games
Hellwatch $9.99 27 44% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) FG
RAZE $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) RAZE CLUB
Afterlight Catacombs $11.99 6 100% 180 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Crit42 Studio
Kleopatra $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) AliRei Dream ProjeKt

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.