Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Runner?

Runner + Noir

Only 7 developers shipped a Noir Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Misty Onsen, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 9 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Runner + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $4.4k (exactly $4,410)
Top 5% $5.8k (exactly $5,750)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 26
Announced 9
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Runner
Price point
$4.00 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 2,157 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $360, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $5.7k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Race The Sun older $9.99 1,974 93% 59k $592k (exactly $591,608) Flippfly LLC
Misty Onsen $5.99 32 56% 960 $5.8k (exactly $5,750) 神 SHEN
北城捷運糾察隊(Northern City Metro Patrol) $3.00 49 83% 1.5k $4.4k (exactly $4,410) HoneyJamStudio
Targeted –10 Days older $4.99 24 100% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Glitchy Frame Studio
Hirilun older $9.99 8 75% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Gone Mad Studios
GUN.DOG.REVENGE $4.00 18 100% 540 $2.2k (exactly $2,160) MEWSTURBO
Boring in paradise older $34.99 2 0% 60 $2.1k (exactly $2,099) Timofei Usikov
HYPERJUSTICE older $4.99 13 92% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Jackson Clayton, Andy Sharpe, Liam A'He… (Jackson Clayton, Andy Sharpe, Liam A'Hearn, Zane Kidwell)
Rogues Adventure older $4.99 11 81% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) SammyLand
Roll me Home older $1.99 26 88% 780 $1.6k (exactly $1,552) PUMPKIM
The Night of Escape $3.99 3 0% 90 $359 (exactly $359) LiTang
ノースウェステリアの子供 $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Ituki Ebina
The Doppel $2.49 2 100% 60 $149 (exactly $149) Nerdrinkers
Waste Runner: Critical Waste $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Black Scarab Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.