Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction

Of 2,154 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,610 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 1 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×17 the market's $120 for a 1 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×2244 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 3,610 games are announced against 1,292 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 3,610 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,154
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $3.7k → $3.1k → $3.0k → $2.7k → $2.4k → $1.7k (still earning) → $989 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,154
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.0k (exactly $2,030)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,740)
Top 5% $267k (exactly $267,033)
Developers, 2 yr 2,154
Released games 6,579
Announced 3,610
Effort 1 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
1 / 10 · text and UI only
Systems
Interactive Fiction
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 123,369 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 1,326 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,610 games are announced against 1,292 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Interactive Fiction

108 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. FMV + Interactive Fiction Fair $36k 164 devs
  2. Match 3 + Interactive Fiction Fair $4.8k 12 devs
  3. Sports + Interactive Fiction Fair $1.5k 19 devs
  4. Incremental + Interactive Fiction Fair $1.4k 160 devs
  5. Driving + Interactive Fiction Fair $1.2k 12 devs
  6. Diplomacy + Interactive Fiction Fair $1.0k 12 devs
  7. Perma Death + Interactive Fiction Fair $959 27 devs
  8. Board Game + Interactive Fiction Fair $657 9 devs
  9. Building + Interactive Fiction Fair $449 17 devs
  10. Interactive Fiction + Spelling Poor odds $18k 8 devs
  11. Online Co-Op + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $9.0k 12 devs
  12. JRPG + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $8.4k 99 devs
  13. Otome + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $7.8k 71 devs
  14. Dating Sim + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $7.7k 526 devs
  15. Rhythm + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $7.2k 11 devs
  16. Sandbox + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $5.0k 54 devs
  17. Shooter + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $4.5k 22 devs
  18. Time Management + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $4.2k 71 devs
  19. Tabletop + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $4.1k 23 devs
  20. Third-Person Shooter + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.9k 17 devs
  21. FPS + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.9k 62 devs
  22. Immersive Sim + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.8k 382 devs
  23. Quick-Time Events + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.6k 31 devs
  24. RPG + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.6k 714 devs
  25. Cooking + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.6k 38 devs
  26. Life Sim + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.5k 164 devs
  27. Resource Management + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.5k 56 devs
  28. Base Building + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.5k 9 devs
  29. Visual Novel + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.4k 1,204 devs
  30. Simulation + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.3k 641 devs
  31. Management + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.1k 77 devs
  32. Party-Based RPG + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.0k 20 devs
  33. Choices Matter + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $3.0k 866 devs
  34. Escape Room + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.7k 13 devs
  35. Multiple Endings + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.7k 922 devs
  36. Strategy RPG + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.4k 46 devs
  37. Choose Your Own Adventure + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.4k 705 devs
  38. Crafting + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.4k 31 devs
  39. Turn-Based Strategy + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.4k 38 devs
  40. Point & Click + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.4k 408 devs
  41. Roguelite + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.4k 45 devs
  42. Time Manipulation + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.4k 18 devs
  43. Card Battler + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.2k 16 devs
  44. Roguelike + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.2k 26 devs
  45. Platformer + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.2k 36 devs
  46. Adventure + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.2k 1,348 devs
  47. Investigation + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.1k 294 devs
  48. Survival + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $2.1k 72 devs
  49. Puzzle + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $1.9k 459 devs
  50. CRPG + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $1.9k 95 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series 2020 · $55M A Plague Tale: Requiem 2022 · $31M The Henry Stickmin Collection 2020 · $25M SCARLET NEXUS 2021 · $25M To the Moon 2012 · $21M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series older $49.99 36,594 96% 1.1M $55M (exactly $54,880,022) Skybound Games
A Plague Tale: Requiem older $49.99 20,797 90% 624k $31M (exactly $31,189,261) Asobo Studio
The Henry Stickmin Collection older $14.99 55,826 98% 1.7M $25M (exactly $25,104,952) PuffballsUnited
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
To the Moon older $9.99 69,549 95% 2.1M $21M (exactly $20,843,835) Freebird Games
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut older $17.99 31,885 96% 957k $17M (exactly $17,208,334) Black Tabby Games
Heavy Rain older $19.99 26,503 85% 795k $16M (exactly $15,893,849) Quantic Dream
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty older $9.99 49,765 94% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,914,570) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Doki Doki Literature Club Plus! older $14.99 30,148 97% 904k $14M (exactly $13,557,556) Team Salvato
Road 96 🛣️ older $19.96 22,118 91% 664k $13M (exactly $13,244,258) Digixart
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Tiny Bunny $10.99 27,200 83% 816k $9.0M (exactly $8,967,840) Saikono, Sokar
Lost Records: Bloom & Rage $39.99 5,873 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,045,838) DON'T NOD
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
Until Dawn™ $59.99 3,564 82% 107k $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) Ballistic Moon
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Tavern Keeper 🍻 · EA $29.99 4,563 94% 137k $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) Greenheart Games 💚

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.