Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Interactive Fiction?

Perma Death + Interactive Fiction

Of 27 developers who shipped a Perma Death Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×2.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 28 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 28 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $718 → $1.4k → $93k → $1.2k → $1.5k → $1.2k → $2.2k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 5% $88k (exactly $87,692)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 60
Announced 28
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Interactive Fiction; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Point & Click
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,603 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $960, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $87k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  10. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  11. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  12. + PuzzleFair107 devs · median $536 · 110 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Until Dawn™ 2024 · $6.4M Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk 2020 · $1.4M Heads Will Roll: Reforged 2023 · $1.2M Aliya: Timelink 2024 · $770k Majotori 2017 · $338k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Until Dawn™ $59.99 3,564 82% 107k $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) Ballistic Moon
Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk older $1.49 31,802 96% 954k $1.4M (exactly $1,421,549) Nikita Kryukov
Heads Will Roll: Reforged older $24.99 1,642 82% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,231,007) 1917 Studios
Aliya: Timelink older $2.99 8,587 97% 258k $770k (exactly $770,254) TDGame Studio
Majotori older $5.99 1,880 96% 56k $338k (exactly $337,836) Majorariatto
Lost Scavenger · EA older $14.99 220 51% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Rockbee
Lost:Antinomy older $2.99 1,042 88% 31k $93k (exactly $93,467) IMaiIna
Project Songbird $14.99 195 85% 5.9k $88k (exactly $87,692) FYRE Games, Conner Rush
Agarta older $2.99 498 71% 15k $45k (exactly $44,671) FF Digital
Sex Apartment 2: Grand Hotel $9.99 81 71% 2.4k $24k (exactly $24,276) Dreamers Workshop
Sex Apartment 💫 $4.99 150 62% 4.5k $22k (exactly $22,455) Dreamers Workshop
Little Girl On Earth Asking Why She Asking Why $0.99 525 93% 16k $16k (exactly $15,592) senpi, Nolly
Loop//Error $2.99 40 95% 1.2k $3.6k (exactly $3,588) Koro Pixel Studio
Kitty Rush $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) DFS
Wild Script: Nature · EA $4.99 16 93% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Surdarium
The Last Road $8.99 8 100% 240 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Crow Station Studios
Circus of the Moon $5.99 12 91% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Davter17

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.