Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction JRPG?

JRPG + Interactive Fiction

Of 99 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 125 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.4k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×203 the market median. Revenue is up 780% on the market; 125 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 780% on the market, 125 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 99
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $46k → $6.0k → $7.9k → $4.2k → $6.9k → $17k (still earning) → $33k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 99
Bottom 30% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Median $8.4k (exactly $8,432)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $38,381)
Top 5% $128k (exactly $127,594)
Developers, 2 yr 99
Released games 273
Announced 125
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 780% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Visual Novel, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 13,192 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.9k, median $8.4k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.9k. 8 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 125 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition older $24.99 8,722 96% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,538,883) SIGONO INC.
Finding Paradise older $9.99 18,126 97% 544k $5.4M (exactly $5,432,362) Freebird Games
Summer Clover older $17.99 9,062 97% 272k $4.9M (exactly $4,890,761) Connection
Haven older $24.99 5,294 88% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,968,912) The Game Bakers
Impostor Factory older $9.99 11,967 95% 359k $3.6M (exactly $3,586,510) Freebird Games
Yog-Sothoth’s Yard older $10.99 10,207 93% 306k $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) Bone Nail
Noctuary older $29.99 2,371 94% 71k $2.1M (exactly $2,133,189) Gratesca
The Legend of Heroes: Kuro no Kiseki older $49.99 1,316 91% 39k $2.0M (exactly $1,973,605) Nihon Falcom
The Legend of Heroes: Kai no Kiseki -Farewell, O Zemuria- $57.99 765 77% 23k $1.3M (exactly $1,330,870) Nihon Falcom
灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) 莓夜工作室
KYOTO XANADU -the Blooming Phantom- $54.99 403 78% 12k $665k (exactly $664,829) Nihon Falcom
Trails in the Sky 2nd Chapter $59.99 171 97% 5.1k $308k (exactly $307,749) Nihon Falcom
Soul Touch $9.99 1,007 97% 30k $302k (exactly $301,798) URAYAHA.TECH
万词破 - 单词女友 $14.99 448 89% 13k $201k (exactly $201,466) 万词破学游组
Love Confessions on the Adventure $10.99 387 94% 12k $128k (exactly $127,594) Yoü Studio
Our Brief Eternity $4.99 749 99% 22k $112k (exactly $112,125) 土豆花制作组
每日亲亲洛丽塔 $8.99 375 74% 11k $101k (exactly $101,138) 夜羊社

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.