Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Interactive Fiction

Only 17 developers shipped an Interactive Fiction Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BLACKWOOD, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×2.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×283 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 15 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 15 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $5.8k → $839 → $536 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $536 (exactly $536)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,343)
Top 5% $424k (exactly $423,580)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 32
Announced 15
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action-Adventure, Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 1,608 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Many Nights a Whisper $2.99 699 94% 21k $63k (exactly $62,700) Deconstructeam, Selkie Harbour
Miss!Don't Affect my Rank $4.99 205 76% 6.2k $31k (exactly $30,688) Peach Fox Game
Lurking Danger $11.99 49 65% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,625) Farelas
Crowhille - Detective Case Files VR older $5.99 90 88% 2.7k $16k (exactly $16,173) Saturn VR, NipsApp Gaming Software
Alter Evo $14.99 23 95% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Technical Fiction
Diddy $7.99 24 62% 720 $5.8k (exactly $5,753) GalaxyVerse
Sanguine · EA $12.99 12 91% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Ryan Berg
The Mansion of The Macabre $14.99 10 20% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Team Tatou
Skuf vs beer bottle party $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
Intelektronica · EA $9.99 8 100% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) RingoGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.