Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Interactive Fiction?

Incremental + Interactive Fiction

Of 160 developers who shipped an Incremental Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 144 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 1 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×12 the market's $120 for a 1 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 150% on the market; 144 games are announced against 96 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 150% on the market, 144 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 160
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.2k → $5.9k → $1.3k → $1.6k → $1.3k → $802 → $1.5k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 160
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $7.0k (exactly $7,036)
Top 5% $114k (exactly $114,169)
Developers, 2 yr 160
Released games 388
Announced 144
Effort 1 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
1 / 10 · text and UI only
Systems
Incremental, Interactive Fiction; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Simulation, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 8,819 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $7.0k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 86 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 144 games are announced against 96 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Summer Clover older $17.99 9,062 97% 272k $4.9M (exactly $4,890,761) Connection
Behind the Frame: The Finest Scenery older $12.99 4,966 94% 149k $1.9M (exactly $1,935,250) Silver Lining Studio
Love Curse: Find Your Soulmate $14.00 3,275 95% 98k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,500) Xso
1 to 1 humanoid edible toys older $7.99 2,420 92% 73k $580k (exactly $580,074) 汉谟拉比炒面, 我的屁是香哒
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
恋爱关系/Romance older $3.99 2,480 84% 74k $297k (exactly $296,856) AFOG
Growing Things Up - Season 1 $12.99 707 91% 21k $276k (exactly $275,518) King, BLANQ
Paper Bride 3 Unresolved Love older $9.99 874 92% 26k $262k (exactly $261,938) HeartBeat Plus
Female Anchor Next Door $14.99 488 80% 15k $219k (exactly $219,454) 18cmSam, UVKen
万词破 - 单词女友 $14.99 448 89% 13k $201k (exactly $201,466) 万词破学游组
Hymer 2000 $4.99 1,031 89% 31k $154k (exactly $154,341) doBell
Only You $6.99 719 94% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 忘雪社
Earth Must Die $15.99 238 85% 7.1k $114k (exactly $114,169) Size Five Games
Summer For You $9.99 253 67% 7.6k $76k (exactly $75,824) AniCore Team
Big Tiddy Goth Baddie🖤⛓️ $14.99 152 76% 4.6k $68k (exactly $68,354) BanzaiProject

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.