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Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Roguelite?
Roguelite + Interactive Fiction
Of 45 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $99k, ×209 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 66 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,395) |
| Top 25% | $19k (exactly $18,873) |
| Top 5% | $99k (exactly $99,384) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 45 |
| Released games | 92 |
| Announced | 66 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Roguelite
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Interactive Fiction
- effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Roguelite, Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 7,713 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Roguelite with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Real-TimeFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TypingFair
- + Grand StrategyFair
- + IdlerFair
- + DogsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LogicFair
- + DwarvesPoor odds
Comparable games
Yog-Sothoth’s Yard 2023 · $3.4M 
School Days 2026 · $2.7M 
Heads Will Roll: Reforged 2023 · $1.2M 
The Red Lantern 2021 · $700k 
Fabled Lands 2022 · $298k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Yog-Sothoth’s Yard | older | $10.99 | 10,207 93% | 306k | $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) | Bone Nail |
| | School Days | $14.99 | 6,023 77% | 181k | $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) | 白雨工作室 | |
| | Heads Will Roll: Reforged | older | $24.99 | 1,642 82% | 49k | $1.2M (exactly $1,231,007) | 1917 Studios |
| | The Red Lantern | older | $24.99 | 934 83% | 28k | $700k (exactly $700,220) | Timberline Studio |
| | Fabled Lands | older | $18.99 | 523 79% | 16k | $298k (exactly $297,953) | Prime Games |
 | AI Roguelite | older | $14.99 | 597 83% | 18k | $268k (exactly $268,471) | Max Loh |
 | Kromlech | · EA | $29.99 | 136 65% | 4.1k | $122k (exactly $122,359) | Perun Creative |
 | Mushroom Musume | $14.99 | 221 95% | 6.6k | $99k (exactly $99,384) | Mortally Moonstruck Games | |
 | Lost:Antinomy | older | $2.99 | 1,042 88% | 31k | $93k (exactly $93,467) | IMaiIna |
 | Find the Demon 恶魔鉴定守则 | $7.99 | 346 89% | 10k | $83k (exactly $82,936) | SHAKINO_UNION | |
 | Dream Lust | $4.99 | 412 84% | 12k | $62k (exactly $61,676) | Cat Paw Game | |
 | Stranger Maidens Please Protect Me! | $10.99 | 154 92% | 4.6k | $51k (exactly $50,774) | Volcanic Good Boy | |
 | LABYRINTHOS: The Depths Want You | $24.99 | 57 84% | 1.7k | $43k (exactly $42,733) | Astronauts | |
 | Forsaker:DingDing&Blade | $10.99 | 124 75% | 3.7k | $41k (exactly $40,883) | 圣剑提灯制作组 [BladeLanternStudios] | |
 | MultiEnding Heroes | $9.99 | 81 100% | 2.4k | $24k (exactly $24,276) | NicoDiti | |
 | Apocalypse: The Last RV | · EA | $4.99 | 159 68% | 4.8k | $24k (exactly $23,802) | 光年切片工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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