Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Sandbox?

Sandbox + Interactive Fiction

Of 54 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 109 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×8.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×370 the market median. Revenue is up 380% on the market; 109 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 380% on the market, 109 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $45k → $2.5k → $13k → $14k → $9.0k → $5.0k → $4.3k (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,180)
Top 5% $232k (exactly $232,084)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 118
Announced 109
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 380% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Interactive Fiction; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Choose Your Own Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Comedy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 7,542 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.0k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hobo: Tough Life older $29.99 8,679 84% 260k $7.8M (exactly $7,808,496) Perun Creative
Tavern Keeper 🍻 · EA $29.99 4,563 94% 137k $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) Greenheart Games 💚
Storyteller older $14.99 8,169 88% 245k $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) Daniel Benmergui
Lust Academy - Season 1 older $14.99 1,721 83% 52k $774k (exactly $773,934) Bear in the Night
Green Hell VR older $19.99 1,143 57% 34k $685k (exactly $685,457) Incuvo
despelote $14.99 1,011 95% 30k $455k (exactly $454,647) Julián Cordero, Sebastian Valbuena
Midnight Sin $19.99 387 82% 12k $232k (exactly $232,084) Faerin Games
Next Space Rebels older $19.99 327 84% 9.8k $196k (exactly $196,102) Studio Floris Kaayk
Love of Magic older $14.99 417 88% 13k $188k (exactly $187,525) Droid Productions
Workshop Simulator older $19.99 284 67% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) INTERMARUM
Vaudeville $19.99 283 48% 8.5k $170k (exactly $169,715) Bumblebee Studios
The Lust City 2 $15.99 315 79% 9.5k $151k (exactly $151,106) Candylight Studio
WebCam: Behind The Screen $14.99 235 88% 7.1k $106k (exactly $105,680) Cream Corp.
Content King $11.99 293 95% 8.8k $105k (exactly $105,392) Usurper Studios
Real Feel $19.99 170 64% 5.1k $102k (exactly $101,949) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Dreams of Amelia 🔞[ADULT NSFW] $14.99 225 77% 6.8k $101k (exactly $101,182) CuddlePoint ❤️
ComeCloser $39.99 60 68% 1.8k $72k (exactly $71,982) CCT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.