Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Adventure game?

Adventure + Interactive Fiction

Of 1,348 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,275 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×554 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 2,275 games are announced against 781 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 2,275 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,348
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.6k → $4.9k → $3.1k → $3.0k → $2.6k → $2.2k → $2.5k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,348
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,153)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $263k (exactly $263,374)
Developers, 2 yr 1,348
Released games 4,060
Announced 2,275
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Interactive Fiction; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Multiple Endings, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.49 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.49 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 92,323 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 820 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,275 games are announced against 781 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series older $49.99 36,594 96% 1.1M $55M (exactly $54,880,022) Skybound Games
A Plague Tale: Requiem older $49.99 20,797 90% 624k $31M (exactly $31,189,261) Asobo Studio
The Henry Stickmin Collection older $14.99 55,826 98% 1.7M $25M (exactly $25,104,952) PuffballsUnited
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
To the Moon older $9.99 69,549 95% 2.1M $21M (exactly $20,843,835) Freebird Games
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut older $17.99 31,885 96% 957k $17M (exactly $17,208,334) Black Tabby Games
Heavy Rain older $19.99 26,503 85% 795k $16M (exactly $15,893,849) Quantic Dream
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty older $9.99 49,765 94% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,914,570) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Road 96 🛣️ older $19.96 22,118 91% 664k $13M (exactly $13,244,258) Digixart
魔女的夜宴 older $34.99 9,664 98% 290k $10M (exactly $10,144,301) YUZUSOFT
Tiny Bunny $10.99 27,200 83% 816k $9.0M (exactly $8,967,840) Saikono, Sokar
Lost Records: Bloom & Rage $39.99 5,873 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,045,838) DON'T NOD
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
Until Dawn™ $59.99 3,564 82% 107k $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) Ballistic Moon
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
KARMA: The Dark World $24.99 3,963 90% 119k $3.0M (exactly $2,971,061) POLLARD STUDIO LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.