Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Otome?

Otome + Interactive Fiction

Of 71 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction Otome in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 126 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×66 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×5585 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 126 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 65.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 126 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 71
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $36k → $8.6k → $11k → $5.8k → $7.0k → $2.5k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Otome + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 71
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,755)
Median $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Top 25% $45k (exactly $44,908)
Top 5% $665k (exactly $664,649)
Developers, 2 yr 71
Released games 213
Announced 126
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Otome, Interactive Fiction; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Dating Sim, Multiple Endings
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 19,996 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $7.8k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 8 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 126 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Otome with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  2. + 2D PlatformerFair21 devs · median $420 · 28 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 30 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds45 devs · median $9.9k · 93 announced
  5. + Dating SimPoor odds110 devs · median $7.8k · 192 announced
  6. + Character CustomizationPoor odds16 devs · median $7.5k · 39 announced
  7. + SimulationPoor odds69 devs · median $7.2k · 120 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds65 devs · median $6.5k · 118 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds58 devs · median $6.5k · 121 announced
  10. + Word GamePoor odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 34 announced
  11. + MysteryPoor odds32 devs · median $5.8k · 65 announced
  12. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds117 devs · median $5.8k · 199 announced

All 32 pairs on the Otome page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Homicipher 2024 · $3.3M 月华辉映之刻 2025 · $1.5M 灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 2025 · $1.1M Sensei! I Like You So Much! 2025 · $665k Yoshiwara Higanbana 2021 · $574k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
月华辉映之刻 $11.99 4,227 89% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) 侠客狗工作室
灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) 莓夜工作室
Sensei! I Like You So Much! $16.99 1,304 86% 39k $665k (exactly $664,649) LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network… (LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network Technology Co. LTD）)
Yoshiwara Higanbana older $44.99 425 90% 13k $574k (exactly $573,622) MariaCrown
Demonheart older $19.99 714 89% 21k $428k (exactly $428,186) Rolling Crown
Bewitching Sinners older $17.99 513 94% 15k $277k (exactly $276,866) Miss Xero
我的恋爱逃生攻略 Love to Live $9.99 864 85% 26k $259k (exactly $258,941) 番茄炖肉制作组
Demonheart: Hunters older $19.99 283 83% 8.5k $170k (exactly $169,715) Rolling Crown
The Ethereal Dream $19.99 263 74% 7.9k $158k (exactly $157,721) 鸭子与葱制作组
Only You $6.99 719 94% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 忘雪社
暴杀残雨之夜 $6.00 779 98% 23k $140k (exactly $140,220) 茶斩刀制作组
Velvet Bite: Softly, with Teeth $39.99 84 54% 2.5k $101k (exactly $100,775) EVERIUM
lovebyte.exe · EA $11.99 253 96% 7.6k $91k (exactly $91,004) Nochi Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.