Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Simulation game?

Simulation + Interactive Fiction

Of 641 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,002 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×755 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 1,002 games are announced against 410 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 1,002 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 641
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $4.9k → $6.2k → $4.5k → $3.1k → $8.1k → $2.6k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 641
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,872)
Top 5% $474k (exactly $474,438)
Developers, 2 yr 641
Released games 1,684
Announced 1,002
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, RPG, Multiple Endings
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 71,281 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 362 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,002 games are announced against 410 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut older $17.99 31,885 96% 957k $17M (exactly $17,208,334) Black Tabby Games
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
There Is No Game: Wrong Dimension older $12.99 24,144 97% 724k $9.4M (exactly $9,408,917) Draw Me A Pixel
Hobo: Tough Life older $29.99 8,679 84% 260k $7.8M (exactly $7,808,496) Perun Creative
Not For Broadcast older $24.99 10,337 94% 310k $7.7M (exactly $7,749,649) NotGames
Unheard - Voices of Crime older $6.99 30,978 95% 929k $6.5M (exactly $6,496,087) NEXT Studios
Suzerain older $19.99 10,574 92% 317k $6.3M (exactly $6,341,228) Torpor Games
Summer Clover older $17.99 9,062 97% 272k $4.9M (exactly $4,890,761) Connection
The Life and Suffering of Sir Brante older $19.99 8,151 89% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,888,155) Sever, Schisma Games
Coffee Talk older $12.99 11,271 94% 338k $4.4M (exactly $4,392,309) Toge Productions
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Tavern Keeper 🍻 · EA $29.99 4,563 94% 137k $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) Greenheart Games 💚
Easy Delivery Co. $12.99 9,538 95% 286k $3.7M (exactly $3,716,959) Sam C
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Shift At Midnight $9.99 10,147 88% 304k $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) Bun Muen
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
Mandate Of Heaven $14.99 5,446 91% 163k $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) 木焱工作室
Sweet Home $7.99 9,910 94% 297k $2.4M (exactly $2,375,427) 开心茶房
Sovereign Tower $19.99 3,087 93% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) WILD WITS GAMES
Kaiju Princess 2 $17.99 3,107 96% 93k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,848) PantyParrot

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.