Do I ship it?

GamesMatch 3Match 3 + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Match 3?

Match 3 + Interactive Fiction

Only 12 developers shipped an Interactive Fiction Match 3 in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mindcop, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×40 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $390. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 7 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 40.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 7 announced, ×0.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3 + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Match 3 + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,790)
Top 25% $59k (exactly $58,982)
Top 5% $186k (exactly $185,726)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 35
Announced 7
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Match 3, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 1,090 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 7 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Match 3 with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceFair25 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  2. + LGBTQ+Fair13 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  3. + DemonsFair9 devs · median $779 · 4 announced
  4. + Time ManagementFair12 devs · median $748 · 7 announced
  5. + ShooterFair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  6. + MagicFair35 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair9 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  8. + Dark FantasyFair14 devs · median $539 · 16 announced
  9. + PvPLong shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced
  10. + CombatLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  11. + DogsLong shot12 devs · median $90 · 4 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds24 devs · median $4.8k · 33 announced

All 75 pairs on the Match 3 page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mirror 2: Project X · EA older $1.99 111,251 24% 3.3M $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs
Mindcop $14.99 413 94% 12k $186k (exactly $185,726) Andre Gareis
Heartspell: Horizon Academy $19.99 116 96% 3.5k $70k (exactly $69,565) Dire Kitten Games
Island Of Enchantment $4.99 394 93% 12k $59k (exactly $58,982) DigitalDream
Princess Farmer older $14.99 125 96% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Samobee Games
Failed Adventurer older $4.99 226 81% 6.8k $34k (exactly $33,832) Srloop
My Cute Succubus older $2.99 258 77% 7.7k $23k (exactly $23,143) CUTE ANIME GIRLS
Tasty Bite: Food dating simulator $6.99 63 95% 1.9k $13k (exactly $13,211) DuckMemeticsGames
Furry Survivals 18+ older $6.99 62 69% 1.9k $13k (exactly $13,001) Octo Games
Love with Furry 🐺 older $1.99 180 71% 5.4k $11k (exactly $10,746) Furry Dreams Lab
Pretty Girl Puzzle · Summer Phantom $4.99 50 98% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) Pomodoro Lab
Project: Stellar Girls $4.99 32 46% 960 $4.8k (exactly $4,790) 430Games
Seven Seas Jewels 2 Collector's Edition $15.99 6 100% 180 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Anawiki Games
Sweet Dreams Café · EA $3.99 11 90% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) Bite Size Games Ltd
Unity-Chan: Desktop Companion $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Jacopo Dev
Sexy Match Tale : Hansel and Gretel $1.99 4 75% 120 $239 (exactly $239) MISHRA GAMES, 纏月室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.