Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Interactive Fiction

Of 46 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 88 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2948 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 88 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 88 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $46k → $17k → $66k → $1.0k → $12k → $4.6k → $63k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,427)
Top 25% $63k (exactly $62,968)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 115
Announced 88
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Interactive Fiction; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, FMV, Visual Novel
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 79,595 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $62k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 88 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Suzerain older $19.99 10,574 92% 317k $6.3M (exactly $6,341,228) Torpor Games
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
Breakout 13 older $9.99 6,899 87% 207k $2.1M (exactly $2,067,630) ALT Lab
Sovereign Tower $19.99 3,087 93% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) WILD WITS GAMES
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
Shao Song I $14.99 2,671 81% 80k $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
我打不过漂亮的她们 $10.99 1,111 95% 33k $366k (exactly $366,297) 想象颗粒
晨昏线 $9.99 427 76% 13k $128k (exactly $127,972) Enter Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.