Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy game?

Fantasy

Of 6,034 developers who shipped a Fantasy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11,400 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×779 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 11,400 games are announced against 3,527 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 11,400 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6,034
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $2.1k → $1.6k → $1.8k → $1.5k → $1.5k → $987 (still earning) → $691 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6,034
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,242)
Top 5% $370k (exactly $370,028)
Developers, 2 yr 6,034
Released games 20,167
Announced 11,400
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 1,043,552 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 3,577 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11,400 games are announced against 3,527 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Fantasy

181 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Twin Stick Shooter + Fantasy Poor odds $1.4k 58 devs
  2. Point & Click + Fantasy Poor odds $1.3k 378 devs
  3. Incremental + Fantasy Poor odds $1.3k 364 devs
  4. Turn-Based Tactics + Fantasy Poor odds $1.2k 723 devs
  5. Card Game + Fantasy Poor odds $1.2k 546 devs
  6. Grid-Based Movement + Fantasy Poor odds $1.2k 172 devs
  7. Sports + Fantasy Poor odds $1.2k 55 devs
  8. Space Sim + Fantasy Poor odds $1.2k 19 devs
  9. Strategy + Fantasy Poor odds $1.2k 1,854 devs
  10. Card Battler + Fantasy Poor odds $1.2k 439 devs
  11. Word Game + Fantasy Poor odds $1.2k 77 devs
  12. Bullet Hell + Fantasy Poor odds $1.1k 468 devs
  13. Bullet Time + Fantasy Poor odds $1.1k 50 devs
  14. Survival Horror + Fantasy Poor odds $1.1k 80 devs
  15. Action Roguelike + Fantasy Poor odds $1.0k 800 devs
  16. FPS + Fantasy Poor odds $1.0k 166 devs
  17. Gambling + Fantasy Poor odds $1.0k 36 devs
  18. 6DOF + Fantasy Poor odds $1.0k 21 devs
  19. Swordplay + Fantasy Poor odds $1.0k 129 devs
  20. PvP + Fantasy Poor odds $900 329 devs
  21. Action + Fantasy Poor odds $899 2,476 devs
  22. Combat + Fantasy Poor odds $899 1,524 devs
  23. Puzzle + Fantasy Poor odds $899 863 devs
  24. Collectathon + Fantasy Poor odds $899 255 devs
  25. Stealth + Fantasy Poor odds $899 69 devs
  26. Action-Adventure + Fantasy Poor odds $898 1,193 devs
  27. Sokoban + Fantasy Poor odds $898 33 devs
  28. Boss Rush + Fantasy Poor odds $898 23 devs
  29. Tower Defense + Fantasy Poor odds $897 371 devs
  30. Shoot 'Em Up + Fantasy Poor odds $839 167 devs
  31. Wargame + Fantasy Poor odds $839 91 devs
  32. Walking Simulator + Fantasy Poor odds $838 122 devs
  33. Grand Strategy + Fantasy Poor odds $809 32 devs
  34. Survival + Fantasy Poor odds $719 472 devs
  35. Tabletop + Fantasy Poor odds $719 185 devs
  36. Match 3 + Fantasy Poor odds $719 65 devs
  37. Spelling + Fantasy Poor odds $719 20 devs
  38. Rhythm + Fantasy Poor odds $718 57 devs
  39. PvE + Fantasy Poor odds $691 1,090 devs
  40. Physics + Fantasy Poor odds $629 278 devs
  41. Hidden Object + Fantasy Poor odds $629 206 devs
  42. Beat 'em up + Fantasy Poor odds $600 133 devs
  43. Combat Racing + Fantasy Poor odds $600 15 devs
  44. 2D Platformer + Fantasy Poor odds $599 764 devs
  45. Shooter + Fantasy Poor odds $599 372 devs
  46. Logic + Fantasy Poor odds $599 217 devs
  47. Real Time Tactics + Fantasy Poor odds $599 199 devs
  48. Chess + Fantasy Poor odds $599 18 devs
  49. Puzzle Platformer + Fantasy Poor odds $598 234 devs
  50. Board Game + Fantasy Poor odds $598 193 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition older $39.99 219,271 94% 6.6M $263M (exactly $263,059,419) Bethesda Game Studios
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
DELTARUNE $24.99 124,894 98% 3.7M $94M (exactly $93,633,032) tobyfox
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered $49.99 59,690 76% 1.8M $90M (exactly $89,517,093) Bethesda Game Studios, Virtuos
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
God of War Ragnarök $59.99 32,502 89% 975k $58M (exactly $58,493,849) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.