Do I ship it?

GamesRhythmRhythm + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Rhythm game?

Rhythm + Fantasy

Of 57 developers who shipped a Fantasy Rhythm game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×808 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 106 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 106 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $599 → $2.1k → $2.8k → $120 → $1.5k → $899 (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Rhythm + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $9.1k (exactly $9,109)
Top 5% $384k (exactly $383,808)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 197
Announced 106
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Rhythm; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 5,830 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $9.1k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DJMAX RESPECT V older $49.99 29,808 88% 894k $45M (exactly $44,703,058) NEOWIZ
A Dance of Fire and Ice older $5.99 78,688 94% 2.4M $14M (exactly $14,140,234) 7th Beat Games
Metal: Hellsinger older $29.99 13,989 96% 420k $13M (exactly $12,585,903) The Outsiders
Crypt of the NecroDancer older $14.99 23,593 95% 708k $11M (exactly $10,609,772) Brace Yourself Games
Sayonara Wild Hearts older $12.99 8,023 96% 241k $3.1M (exactly $3,126,563) Simogo
Thumper older $19.99 4,056 91% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,432,383) Drool
DEEMO -Reborn- older $24.99 3,188 87% 96k $2.4M (exactly $2,390,044) Rayark International Limited
PATAPON 1+2 REPLAY $29.99 2,091 83% 63k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,273) SAS CO.,LTD.
Touhou Danmaku Kagura Phantasia Lost older $19.99 2,266 81% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,358,920) Alliance Arts, UnknownX
Symphonic Rain older $39.99 1,114 97% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,466) KOGADO STUDIO
Fretless - The Wrath of Riffson $14.99 1,399 98% 42k $629k (exactly $629,130) Ritual Studios
KALPA: Cosmic Symphony $19.99 640 84% 19k $384k (exactly $383,808) QueseraGames
People of Note $24.99 389 89% 12k $292k (exactly $291,633) Iridium Studios
K-pop Idol Stories: Road to Debut $19.99 175 53% 5.3k $105k (exactly $104,947) Wisageni Studio
Metal: Hellsinger VR $29.99 107 68% 3.2k $96k (exactly $96,268) Lab42, The Outsiders
Nientum - Op.ZERO · EA $19.99 159 98% 4.8k $95k (exactly $95,352) QueseraGames
Rhythm Witch: Beat Death $5.99 508 94% 15k $91k (exactly $91,288) Dusklight CO., LTD.
Sweet Succubus Home $10.99 275 92% 8.3k $91k (exactly $90,668) Black Cat Entertainment
Wardrum $24.99 87 86% 2.6k $65k (exactly $65,224) Mopeful Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.