Do I ship it?

GamesShoot 'Em UpShoot 'Em Up + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Fantasy

Of 167 developers who shipped a Fantasy Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 207 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $91k, ×192 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 207 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 207 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 167
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $838 → $2.1k → $1.2k → $599 → $1.0k → $1.5k → $538 (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 167
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,086)
Top 5% $91k (exactly $91,288)
Developers, 2 yr 167
Released games 542
Announced 207
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 5,836 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $840, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $91k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 96 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 207 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Minishoot' Adventures older $14.99 7,818 97% 235k $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) SoulGame Studio
Touhou Tenkuushou ~ Hidden Star in Four Seasons. older $14.99 4,312 98% 129k $1.9M (exactly $1,939,106) 上海アリス幻樂団
Valfaris older $24.99 1,782 86% 53k $1.3M (exactly $1,335,965) Steel Mantis
Disney•Pixar Cars older $19.99 1,940 89% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,418) Beenox
Bloodshed $12.99 1,824 84% 55k $711k (exactly $710,813) com8com1 Software
Touhou Kanjuden ~ Legacy of Lunatic Kingdom. older $14.99 1,516 98% 45k $682k (exactly $681,745) 上海アリス幻樂団
UFO ROBOT GRENDIZER – The Feast of the Wolves older $39.99 559 84% 17k $671k (exactly $670,632) Endroad
Panzer Dragoon: Remake older $24.99 862 78% 26k $646k (exactly $646,241) MegaPixel Studio S. A.
DEMON'S TILT older $19.99 962 94% 29k $577k (exactly $576,911) WIZNWAR, FLARB LLC
Bounty of One older $6.99 2,749 88% 82k $576k (exactly $576,465) OptizOnion
Touhou Kinjoukyou ~ Fossilized Wonders. $14.99 832 91% 25k $374k (exactly $374,150) 上海アリス幻樂団
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Crafty Survivors $11.99 712 83% 21k $256k (exactly $256,106) Flannel Bear Games
Touhou Koumakyou: Classic - the Embodiment of Scarlet Devil $17.99 188 98% 5.6k $101k (exactly $101,464) 上海アリス幻樂団, 上海アリスReprise
Endless Forest Dream $8.99 362 77% 11k $98k (exactly $97,631) Seeking-chan
Demon Hunt · EA $6.99 460 77% 14k $96k (exactly $96,462) Massive Hug
Touhou Lensed Night Sky, Kaseigai $22.00 144 95% 4.3k $95k (exactly $95,040) Fire Land
Rhythm Witch: Beat Death $5.99 508 94% 15k $91k (exactly $91,288) Dusklight CO., LTD.
Seed of Heroes $14.99 188 75% 5.6k $85k (exactly $84,544) Vermillion Digital

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.