Do I ship it?

GamesSpellingSpelling + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Spelling game?

Spelling + Fantasy

Of 20 developers who shipped a Fantasy Spelling game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $13k, ×29 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 24 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 24 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spelling + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $358 → $2.1k → $239 → $2.2k → $657 (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Spelling + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 5% $14k (exactly $13,850)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 44
Announced 24
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spelling
effort 1 / 10 · high · effort 1 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Spelling; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Word Game, Exploration, RPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, 1990's
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 144 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $720, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $13k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spelling with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MagicFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  2. + PvPLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced
  3. + Interactive FictionPoor odds8 devs · median $18k · 12 announced
  4. + RoguelikePoor odds25 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  5. + AdventurePoor odds24 devs · median $3.6k · 38 announced
  6. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $3.2k · 15 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds17 devs · median $2.9k · 22 announced
  8. + Choices MatterPoor odds11 devs · median $2.4k · 17 announced
  9. + ExplorationPoor odds13 devs · median $1.2k · 23 announced
  10. + StrategyPoor odds42 devs · median $779 · 52 announced
  11. + PvEPoor odds13 devs · median $657 · 18 announced
  12. + Visual NovelDead9 devs · median $4.0k · 8 announced

All 28 pairs on the Spelling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
スペルトナエル older $8.99 344 97% 10k $93k (exactly $92,777) おまど
Words Can Kill older $7.99 92 70% 2.8k $22k (exactly $22,052) Typing Monkey
Spellspire older $9.99 60 81% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,982) 10tons Ltd
Watchword $13.99 33 90% 990 $14k (exactly $13,850) Big Quail Games
WonderLang Japanese $24.99 14 42% 420 $10k (exactly $10,496) bair games
Lexispell $8.99 31 93% 930 $8.4k (exactly $8,361) MrEliptik
Dungeons & Keyboards older $4.99 34 88% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,090) Corgibox
WonderLang Mandarin Chinese $24.99 6 66% 180 $4.5k (exactly $4,498) bair games
Typomagical $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Sigcom
LA FORET DE PAGO 2 : SOUVENIR DE GLACE older $11.99 11 100% 330 $4.0k (exactly $3,957) Futurtech
Terra Alia VR: A Multilingual Adventure $19.99 6 66% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) 30 Parallel
WonderLang Portuguese $24.99 3 0% 90 $2.2k (exactly $2,249) bair games
Spell Wizard $2.99 25 84% 750 $2.2k (exactly $2,242) Wushed
Spelly Cat · EA $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Brkn Fixie Games
SPELLCAST $10.99 5 100% 150 $1.6k (exactly $1,648) BEDiBUG Concepts

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.