Do I ship it?

GamesSokobanSokoban + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Sokoban?

Sokoban + Fantasy

Of 33 developers who shipped a Fantasy Sokoban in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×229 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 49 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 49 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sokoban + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $955 → $8.6k → $1.0k → $1.0k → $2.2k → $628 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sokoban + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,118)
Top 5% $109k (exactly $108,827)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 100
Announced 49
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Sokoban; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Logic
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 982 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. Nearly all of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sokoban with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CollectathonFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  3. + CatsFair15 devs · median $776 · 16 announced
  4. + LogicFair203 devs · median $718 · 176 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  6. + PuzzleFair294 devs · median $599 · 288 announced
  7. + ProgrammingFair8 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + StrategyFair141 devs · median $539 · 125 announced
  10. + Puzzle PlatformerFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  11. + FuturisticLong shot21 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds6 devs · median $19k · 16 announced

All 50 pairs on the Sokoban page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ittle Dew older $19.99 481 92% 14k $288k (exactly $288,456) Ludosity
Poke ALL Toads $11.99 447 100% 13k $161k (exactly $160,786) SpaceMatra
Treasure 'n Trio $14.99 242 100% 7.3k $109k (exactly $108,827) TNT
Drag and Drop Medieval older $29.99 91 85% 2.7k $82k (exactly $81,873) Galactic Geckon
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Seek Girl V older $1.99 920 72% 28k $55k (exactly $54,924) DSGame
Toroban $20.00 60 86% 1.8k $36k (exactly $36,000) Hebert Games LLC
Cramped Room of Death older $14.99 69 94% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Hafiz Mohd Rozlan
Time Master older $14.99 64 95% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) MorpheusZ
Colorful Recolor older $9.99 84 91% 2.5k $25k (exactly $25,175) Gagonfe, HugoBDesigner, Ulon
Fell in love with the Nobility girl As a member of the rebel organization $6.99 28 78% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) selenophobia
After Light Fades $14.99 8 75% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Orchid of Redemption
PortalBox $4.99 22 81% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) FancygodGame
Nexus of Fate $4.99 21 85% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) theNeko
Karakurium $12.99 8 100% 240 $3.1k (exactly $3,118) Karaku Lab
Prince of Darkness Jr. $4.99 15 100% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Pond Area

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.