Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Shooter?

Shooter + Fantasy

Of 372 developers who shipped a Fantasy Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 586 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $97k, ×155 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 586 games are announced against 178 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 586 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 372
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $628 → $1.6k → $449 → $1.1k → $599 → $1.5k → $539 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 372
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $5.3k (exactly $5,254)
Top 5% $98k (exactly $97,631)
Developers, 2 yr 372
Released games 1,233
Announced 586
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 55,369 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $97k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 229 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 586 games are announced against 178 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BioShock Infinite older $29.99 109,718 93% 3.3M $99M (exactly $98,713,285) Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (… (Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (Linux))
Slime Rancher 2 $29.99 43,590 94% 1.3M $39M (exactly $39,217,923) Monomi Park
Dishonored older $9.99 67,504 97% 2.0M $20M (exactly $20,230,949) Arkane Studios
Tiny Tina's Wonderlands older $29.99 17,779 70% 533k $16M (exactly $15,995,766) Gearbox Software
Metal: Hellsinger older $29.99 13,989 96% 420k $13M (exactly $12,585,903) The Outsiders
Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun older $21.99 15,741 90% 472k $10M (exactly $10,384,338) Auroch Digital
Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet older $19.99 15,461 79% 464k $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) Dimps Corporation
Orcs Must Die! 2 older $14.99 12,924 92% 388k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,923) Robot Entertainment
Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition older $39.99 4,820 69% 145k $5.8M (exactly $5,782,554) Flying Wild Hog
Immortals of Aveum™ older $59.99 2,794 71% 84k $5.0M (exactly $5,028,362) Ascendant Studios
Lost Skies $24.99 2,470 63% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) Bossa Studios
Heretic + Hexen $14.99 1,789 95% 54k $805k (exactly $804,513) id Software, Nightdive Studios
Arken Age $39.99 669 90% 20k $803k (exactly $802,599) VitruviusVR
Vellum $19.99 1,290 89% 39k $774k (exactly $773,613) Alvios Games
Bloodshed $12.99 1,824 84% 55k $711k (exactly $710,813) com8com1 Software
Sapphire Safari · EA $12.99 1,653 92% 50k $644k (exactly $644,174) Kinky Fridays
Wizordum $19.99 880 91% 26k $528k (exactly $527,736) Emberheart Games
Valkyrie of Phantasm $29.99 556 86% 17k $500k (exactly $500,233) AREAZERO
Serious Sam: Shatterverse $19.99 648 50% 19k $389k (exactly $388,606) Behaviour Interactive Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.