Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Sports game?

Sports + Fantasy

Of 55 developers who shipped a Fantasy Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $52k, ×84 the market median. Revenue is up 855% on the market; 72 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 855% on the market, 72 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $539 → $300 → $179 → $1.1k → $90 → $1.7k → $2.5k (still earning) → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 5% $52k (exactly $52,462)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 200
Announced 72
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 855% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Combat
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,929 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $52k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DJMAX RESPECT V older $49.99 29,808 88% 894k $45M (exactly $44,703,058) NEOWIZ
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
Jusant older $24.99 4,123 93% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,091,013) DON'T NOD
Harry Potter: Quidditch Champions older $29.99 2,790 73% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,510,163) Unbroken Studios
RUMBLE · EA older $24.99 3,158 87% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,367,553) Buckethead Entertainment
Walkabout Mini Golf VR older $24.99 3,094 97% 93k $2.3M (exactly $2,319,572) Mighty Coconut
Blood Bowl: Chaos Edition (Classic) older $14.99 1,386 79% 42k $623k (exactly $623,284) Cyanide Studios
Sprint Vector older $29.99 576 83% 17k $518k (exactly $518,227) Survios
Wheel World $19.99 735 90% 22k $441k (exactly $440,779) Messhof
KALPA: Cosmic Symphony $19.99 640 84% 19k $384k (exactly $383,808) QueseraGames
Dawn of Anarchy $13.99 125 84% 3.8k $52k (exactly $52,462) Quacky Games
Death by Scrolling $7.99 177 77% 5.3k $42k (exactly $42,427) Terrible Toybox NZ
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Mythic Kart Maker · EA $11.99 53 83% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,064) Dream Mix Games
The Amazing Crackpots Club! $14.99 41 95% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Astrobard Games, IguanaBee
Galaxy Kart VR $19.99 24 50% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) VRMonkey
SPORTAL $7.99 57 94% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Sleepwalking Potatoes
Football Fictional World Simulator $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) keigo0221

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.