Do I ship it?

GamesChessChess + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Chess game?

Chess + Fantasy

Only 18 developers shipped a Fantasy Chess game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Humiliation Dungeon Survivors, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $97k, ×205 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 39 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 39 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Chess + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $8.9k → $1.0k → $599 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Chess + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,585)
Top 5% $97k (exactly $97,402)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 50
Announced 39
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 160% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Chess
effort 1 / 10 · high · fully specified rules and known engines
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Chess; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 511 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.5k, 1 in 20 over $97k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Chess with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  3. + PuzzleFair46 devs · median $598 · 43 announced
  4. + Turn-Based StrategyFair58 devs · median $449 · 86 announced
  5. + Choices MatterFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  6. + StrategyLong shot108 devs · median $419 · 138 announced
  7. + ArcadeLong shot12 devs · median $180 · 12 announced
  8. + RoguelikePoor odds29 devs · median $1.2k · 43 announced
  9. + RoguelitePoor odds25 devs · median $1.0k · 40 announced
  10. + DeckbuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $839 · 33 announced
  11. + MedievalPoor odds16 devs · median $598 · 25 announced
  12. + Card GamePoor odds15 devs · median $598 · 24 announced

All 25 pairs on the Chess page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
King of the Bridge older $2.99 1,667 95% 50k $150k (exactly $149,530) Finn Schuuring
The Ouroboros King older $9.99 471 80% 14k $141k (exactly $141,159) Oriol Cosp Games
Humiliation Dungeon Survivors $9.99 325 87% 9.8k $97k (exactly $97,402) Naku Kinoko
Chessaria: The Tactical Adventure (Chess) older $19.99 99 74% 3.0k $59k (exactly $59,370) Pixel Wizards
Urja older $9.99 95 53% 2.9k $28k (exactly $28,472) Breaking Fourth
WizardChess $14.99 56 83% 1.7k $25k (exactly $25,183) TwoPM Studios
Yes, My Queen $12.99 50 82% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,485) Wall Spaghetti
Militia older $5.99 90 94% 2.7k $16k (exactly $16,173) BrainGoodGames
Pawn of the Dead older $6.99 44 93% 1.3k $9.2k (exactly $9,227) Aslan Game Studio
Who Takes The Crown? $7.99 37 83% 1.1k $8.9k (exactly $8,869) devthedoug
Chess of Mana $8.99 17 88% 510 $4.6k (exactly $4,585) Monk Monkey
Chessman Adventures · EA $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) DVK Games
A Game of Chaess $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Yohan Fabre (Gamezel)
Unto Deepest Depths $6.99 5 100% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) McCollum Games
CHESST $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) ANCIENT MOAI COOPERATIVE
Mind Over Monarchy $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) Wise Puppy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.