Do I ship it?

GamesMatch 3Match 3 + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Match 3?

Match 3 + Fantasy

Of 65 developers who shipped a Fantasy Match 3 in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $69k, ×146 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 81 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 81 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3 + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $270 → $959 → $776 → $809 → $2.6k → $208 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Match 3 + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,835)
Top 5% $70k (exactly $69,565)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 294
Announced 81
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Match 3; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, RPG, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,781 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $720, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $69k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Match 3 with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  2. + RomanceFair25 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Fair13 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + DemonsFair9 devs · median $779 · 4 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair12 devs · median $748 · 7 announced
  6. + ShooterFair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + MagicFair35 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  8. + Tower DefenseFair9 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + Dark FantasyFair14 devs · median $539 · 16 announced
  10. + PvPLong shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced
  11. + CombatLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot12 devs · median $90 · 4 announced

All 75 pairs on the Match 3 page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battle Chef Brigade Deluxe older $19.99 1,624 95% 49k $974k (exactly $973,913) Trinket Studios
Humans are not that against Lizardwomen older $3.99 2,807 93% 84k $336k (exactly $335,998) Hue Axis Entertainment
PuzzleQuest: Challenge of the Warlords older $9.99 1,025 86% 31k $307k (exactly $307,192) Infinite Interactive
10,000,000 older $4.99 1,807 90% 54k $271k (exactly $270,508) EightyEightGames
Puzzle Quest: Immortal Edition $14.99 522 77% 16k $235k (exactly $234,743) Infinity Plus 2
Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes - Definitive Edition older $17.99 434 80% 13k $234k (exactly $234,230) Dotemu, Capybara Games
Spirit Swap: Lofi Beats to Match-3 To $19.99 239 94% 7.2k $143k (exactly $143,328) Soft Not Weak, LLC
You Must Build A Boat older $4.99 836 81% 25k $125k (exactly $125,149) EightyEightGames
Humans are not that against Lizardwomen 2 $9.99 389 93% 12k $117k (exactly $116,583) Hue Axis Entertainment
Hero Emblems II older $11.99 255 58% 7.7k $92k (exactly $91,724) HeatPot Games
Heartspell: Horizon Academy $19.99 116 96% 3.5k $70k (exactly $69,565) Dire Kitten Games
Legends of Gems $8.99 139 81% 4.2k $37k (exactly $37,488) 南京西木优洛网络科技有限公司
Furry Adventure Club and the Holy Grail 🦁 $6.99 161 93% 4.8k $34k (exactly $33,762) Furry Dreams Lab
Glamour Kaleidoscope $7.99 90 75% 2.7k $22k (exactly $21,573) Cup Dragon
Super Farming Boy · EA $12.99 42 85% 1.3k $16k (exactly $16,367) LemonChili Soft
Roguematch : The Extraplanar Invasion $14.99 33 84% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Starstruck Games
Slime Soup $4.99 50 90% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) VANDERMAESEN GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.