Do I ship it?

GamesBoard GameBoard Game + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Board Game?

Board Game + Fantasy

Of 193 developers who shipped a Fantasy Board Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 275 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×559 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 275 games are announced against 122 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 275 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Board Game + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 193
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $2.2k → $2.9k → $3.7k → $419 → $1.3k → $450 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Board Game + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 193
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,124)
Top 5% $265k (exactly $265,394)
Developers, 2 yr 193
Released games 631
Announced 275
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Board Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 6,541 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.1k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 93 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 275 games are announced against 122 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Board Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Party-Based RPGFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  3. + JRPGFair13 devs · median $2.5k · 7 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair60 devs · median $1.3k · 81 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Fair8 devs · median $1.2k · 5 announced
  8. + SpaceFair28 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  10. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $1.1k · 21 announced
  11. + Party GameFair72 devs · median $899 · 98 announced
  12. + DragonsFair15 devs · median $838 · 15 announced

All 152 pairs on the Board Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Hand of Fate older $19.99 8,009 89% 240k $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) Defiant Development
Hand of Fate 2 older $29.99 5,273 84% 158k $4.7M (exactly $4,744,118) Defiant Development
Mordheim: City of the Damned older $19.99 7,056 72% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,231,483) Rogue Factor
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
TaleSpire · EA older $24.99 4,391 89% 132k $3.3M (exactly $3,291,933) Bouncyrock Entertainment
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
The Legend of Fancy Realm Remake $24.99 897 86% 27k $672k (exactly $672,481) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
The Jackbox Party Pack 11 $29.99 419 93% 13k $377k (exactly $376,974) Jackbox Games, Inc.
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
Dawnfolk $14.99 664 94% 20k $299k (exactly $298,601) Darenn Keller
Sandwalkers $19.99 490 73% 15k $294k (exactly $293,853) Goblinz Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.