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Should I ship a Fantasy Wargame?
Wargame + Fantasy
Of 91 developers who shipped a Fantasy Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 197 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×236 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 197 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $180 (exactly $180) |
|---|---|
| Median | $839 (exactly $839) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $13,941) |
| Top 5% | $148k (exactly $148,352) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 91 |
| Released games | 279 |
| Announced | 197 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Roguelite
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 7,334 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 197 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + LogicFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + StealthPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
Comparable games
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M 
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator 2021 · $86M 
Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M 
Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Realms of Ruin 2023 · $3.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 | older | $59.99 | 168,628 84% | 5.1M | $303M (exactly $303,479,812) | Saber Interactive |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Totally Accurate Battle Simulator | older | $19.99 | 144,036 97% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $86,378,389) | Landfall |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Realms of Ruin | older | $59.99 | 1,867 55% | 56k | $3.4M (exactly $3,360,040) | Frontier Developments |
 | Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith | older | $39.99 | 1,924 94% | 58k | $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) | Illwinter Game Design |
 | Dominions 6 - Rise of the Pantokrator | older | $44.99 | 1,686 90% | 51k | $2.3M (exactly $2,275,594) | Illwinter Game Design |
 | Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator | · EA older | $6.99 | 8,904 96% | 267k | $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) | JoySpark Games |
 | Fantasy General II | older | $39.99 | 1,034 82% | 31k | $1.2M (exactly $1,240,490) | Owned by Gravity |
 | Tabletop Tavern | $19.99 | 2,049 89% | 61k | $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) | TJ | |
 | Border Pioneer | $14.99 | 1,675 86% | 50k | $753k (exactly $753,248) | Yahzj Games | |
 | BRIGANDINE ABYSS | $49.99 | 248 35% | 7.4k | $372k (exactly $371,926) | Adglobe | |
 | There Are No Orcs | $8.99 | 1,188 93% | 36k | $320k (exactly $320,404) | BaseTrade Studio | |
 | Kingdom's Deck | $9.99 | 495 72% | 15k | $148k (exactly $148,352) | Ivan Aco | |
 | 👑Idle Calibur：Zero💕（选王之剑：零） | $10.99 | 445 80% | 13k | $147k (exactly $146,716) | 绝汪 | |
 | Warlords Under Siege | $9.99 | 436 77% | 13k | $131k (exactly $130,669) | RedKar Devs | |
 | Liquidation RTS | · EA | $21.99 | 161 89% | 4.8k | $106k (exactly $106,212) | Divio |
 | Flowers and Deities | $12.99 | 265 90% | 8.0k | $103k (exactly $103,270) | Chill Winter Studio | |
 | Mage and Monsters II | $8.99 | 372 82% | 11k | $100k (exactly $100,328) | Lasse Zacho Malver |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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