Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Fantasy

Of 863 developers who shipped a Fantasy Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,338 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×360 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 1,338 games are announced against 459 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 1,338 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 863
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.5k → $839 → $1.9k → $1.0k → $719 → $897 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 863
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $5.9k (exactly $5,872)
Top 5% $171k (exactly $170,932)
Developers, 2 yr 863
Released games 3,432
Announced 1,338
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 60,235 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 606 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,338 games are announced against 459 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
Ori and the Blind Forest: Definitive Edition older $19.99 62,690 94% 1.9M $38M (exactly $37,595,193) Moon Studios GmbH
FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster older $29.99 19,857 87% 596k $18M (exactly $17,865,343) Square Enix
Brothers - A Tale of Two Sons older $14.99 33,765 94% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,184,120) Starbreeze Studios AB
Darksiders III older $39.99 12,519 75% 376k $15M (exactly $15,019,044) Gunfire Games
TUNIC older $29.99 16,692 91% 501k $15M (exactly $15,017,792) TUNIC Team
Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition older $29.99 16,313 78% 489k $15M (exactly $14,676,806) Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic
Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince older $29.99 11,712 88% 351k $11M (exactly $10,537,286) Frozenbyte
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Librarian: Tidy Up the Arcane Library! $5.99 24,497 94% 735k $4.4M (exactly $4,402,111) ArtRising
Legacy of Kain™ Soul Reaver 1&2 Remastered $29.99 3,042 90% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,736,887) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
The Midnight Walk $29.99 2,682 92% 80k $2.4M (exactly $2,412,995) MoonHood
Threefold Recital $14.99 5,117 98% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) Everscape Games
Creature Kitchen $7.99 9,046 99% 271k $2.2M (exactly $2,168,326) The Rat Zone
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
LEGO® Harry Potter™ Collection $39.99 1,464 82% 44k $1.8M (exactly $1,756,361) TT Games, Double Eleven
Alabaster Dawn · EA $24.99 2,168 94% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,625,350) Radical Fish Games
Train45 $10.99 3,823 97% 115k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,443) Elniko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.