Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Survival game?

Survival + Fantasy

Of 472 developers who shipped a Fantasy Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 780 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×419 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 780 games are announced against 265 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 780 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 472
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $898 → $809 → $1.2k → $1.7k → $599 → $599 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 472
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,392)
Top 5% $263k (exactly $263,074)
Developers, 2 yr 472
Released games 1,250
Announced 780
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 77,021 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $720, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 234 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 780 games are announced against 265 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARK: Survival Ascended · EA older $44.99 106,761 60% 3.2M $144M (exactly $144,095,322) Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games)
Enshrouded · EA older $39.99 93,426 85% 2.8M $112M (exactly $112,083,172) Keen Games GmbH
Conan Exiles Enhanced older $39.99 79,741 78% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,665,278) Funcom, Inflexion Games
Outward Definitive Edition older $39.99 24,636 72% 739k $30M (exactly $29,555,809) Nine Dots Studio
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Kingdom Two Crowns older $19.99 31,259 90% 938k $19M (exactly $18,746,022) Fury Studios, Coatsink
Ni no Kuni™ II: Revenant Kingdom older $59.99 8,100 82% 243k $15M (exactly $14,577,570) LEVEL5 Inc.
Amazing Cultivation Simulator older $24.99 19,111 85% 573k $14M (exactly $14,327,517) GSQ Games
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Age of Darkness: Final Stand $27.99 9,486 74% 285k $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) PlaySide
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos $12.99 6,281 68% 188k $2.4M (exactly $2,447,706) NANOO
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Wicked Island · EA $34.99 1,194 76% 36k $1.3M (exactly $1,253,342) RawDarkness
EverSiege: Untold Ages $19.99 1,906 68% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028) Tindalos Interactive
Vampires: Bloodlord Rising · EA $19.99 1,631 70% 49k $978k (exactly $978,111) Mehuman Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.