Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Fantasy

Of 255 developers who shipped a Fantasy Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 389 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×587 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 389 games are announced against 153 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 389 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 255
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $1.5k → $838 → $898 → $1.9k → $748 → $719 (still earning) → $807 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 255
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 5% $279k (exactly $279,021)
Developers, 2 yr 255
Released games 686
Announced 389
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Colorful, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 53,366 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 137 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 389 games are announced against 153 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
Spyro™ Reignited Trilogy older $39.99 14,211 92% 426k $17M (exactly $17,048,937) Toys for Bob, Iron Galaxy Studios
Travellers Rest · EA older $17.99 16,538 87% 496k $8.9M (exactly $8,925,559) Isolated Games
Pumpkin Jack older $29.99 7,416 91% 222k $6.7M (exactly $6,672,175) Evil Raptor
Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land $69.99 2,534 64% 76k $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Librarian: Tidy Up the Arcane Library! $5.99 24,497 94% 735k $4.4M (exactly $4,402,111) ArtRising
Webbed older $9.99 13,820 97% 415k $4.1M (exactly $4,141,854) Sbug Games
Atelier Sophie 2: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Dream older $59.99 2,166 94% 65k $3.9M (exactly $3,898,150) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince older $39.99 1,158 71% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) Square Enix
Ogu and the Secret Forest older $24.99 1,817 94% 55k $1.4M (exactly $1,362,205) Moonlab Studio, Sinkhole Studio
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
DevilConnection $16.66 1,951 98% 59k $975k (exactly $975,110) ChaoGames
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Shin chan: Shiro and the Coal Town $29.99 837 95% 25k $753k (exactly $753,049) h.a.n.d., Inc.
Sapphire Safari · EA $12.99 1,653 92% 50k $644k (exactly $644,174) Kinky Fridays
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle $18.99 950 71% 29k $541k (exactly $541,215) KTMG LLC.
Mika and The Witch's Mountain $19.99 671 86% 20k $402k (exactly $402,399) Chibig, Nukefist

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.