Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi game?

Sci-fi

Of 3,985 developers who shipped a Sci-fi game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7,570 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×887 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 7,570 games are announced against 2,371 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 7,570 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 3,985
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.5k → $1.3k → $1.3k → $1.5k → $1.2k → $660 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 3,985
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $897 (exactly $897)
Top 25% $7.9k (exactly $7,913)
Top 5% $421k (exactly $421,378)
Developers, 2 yr 3,985
Released games 13,382
Announced 7,570
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,176,903 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 2,072 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7,570 games are announced against 2,371 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Sci-fi

178 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Stealth + Sci-fi Poor odds $959 147 devs
  2. Dungeon Crawler + Sci-fi Poor odds $959 135 devs
  3. Roguelite + Sci-fi Poor odds $899 573 devs
  4. Survival + Sci-fi Poor odds $899 485 devs
  5. Space Sim + Sci-fi Poor odds $899 266 devs
  6. PvP + Sci-fi Poor odds $899 242 devs
  7. Real Time Tactics + Sci-fi Poor odds $899 134 devs
  8. Strategy + Sci-fi Poor odds $898 941 devs
  9. Action-Adventure + Sci-fi Poor odds $898 688 devs
  10. Local Multiplayer + Sci-fi Poor odds $898 104 devs
  11. Hex Grid + Sci-fi Poor odds $898 44 devs
  12. Class-Based + Sci-fi Poor odds $897 49 devs
  13. Board Game + Sci-fi Poor odds $896 52 devs
  14. Action Roguelike + Sci-fi Poor odds $837 475 devs
  15. Twin Stick Shooter + Sci-fi Poor odds $809 154 devs
  16. Rhythm + Sci-fi Poor odds $809 59 devs
  17. Auto Battler + Sci-fi Poor odds $779 75 devs
  18. Naval Combat + Sci-fi Poor odds $776 18 devs
  19. Puzzle + Sci-fi Poor odds $719 690 devs
  20. Card Game + Sci-fi Poor odds $719 123 devs
  21. Parkour + Sci-fi Poor odds $719 87 devs
  22. Driving + Sci-fi Poor odds $719 62 devs
  23. Incremental + Sci-fi Poor odds $718 179 devs
  24. Shooter + Sci-fi Poor odds $657 1,017 devs
  25. Time Management + Sci-fi Poor odds $610 122 devs
  26. Action + Sci-fi Poor odds $600 2,252 devs
  27. Third-Person Shooter + Sci-fi Poor odds $600 200 devs
  28. Physics + Sci-fi Poor odds $599 429 devs
  29. Platformer + Sci-fi Poor odds $599 420 devs
  30. Tower Defense + Sci-fi Poor odds $599 195 devs
  31. Vehicular Combat + Sci-fi Poor odds $599 111 devs
  32. Collectathon + Sci-fi Poor odds $599 101 devs
  33. Racing + Sci-fi Poor odds $599 99 devs
  34. Beat 'em up + Sci-fi Poor odds $599 67 devs
  35. Swordplay + Sci-fi Poor odds $599 25 devs
  36. Grid-Based Movement + Sci-fi Poor odds $597 88 devs
  37. Word Game + Sci-fi Poor odds $597 35 devs
  38. Combat + Sci-fi Poor odds $539 940 devs
  39. 4 Player Local + Sci-fi Poor odds $539 34 devs
  40. Tanks + Sci-fi Poor odds $539 24 devs
  41. Time Attack + Sci-fi Poor odds $539 16 devs
  42. PvE + Sci-fi Poor odds $479 691 devs
  43. 2D Platformer + Sci-fi Poor odds $450 345 devs
  44. Logic + Sci-fi Poor odds $450 248 devs
  45. Typing + Sci-fi Poor odds $450 28 devs
  46. Bullet Hell + Sci-fi Poor odds $449 565 devs
  47. Precision Platformer + Sci-fi Poor odds $449 119 devs
  48. Sports + Sci-fi Poor odds $449 60 devs
  49. Shoot 'Em Up + Sci-fi Poor odds $419 453 devs
  50. Dynamic Narration + Sci-fi Poor odds $419 37 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Subnautica 2018 · $307M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Halo: The Master Chief Collection older $39.99 239,603 92% 7.2M $287M (exactly $287,451,719) 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive)
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.