Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Sports game?

Sports + Sci-fi

Of 60 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 90 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×440 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 90 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 90 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $861 → $1.2k → $899 → $1.8k → $1.4k → $359 → $449 (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 5% $276k (exactly $276,208)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 238
Announced 90
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Racing, Arcade
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,235 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. Nearly all of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 90 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
EZ2ON REBOOT : R older $44.99 5,972 91% 179k $8.1M (exactly $8,060,408) Neonovice Co., Ltd., SQUARE PIXELS
Redout: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 3,438 84% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,769) 34BigThings srl
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Pacer older $39.99 576 72% 17k $691k (exactly $691,027) R8 Games Ltd
Ricochet older $4.99 4,549 82% 136k $681k (exactly $680,985) Valve
DeathSprint 66 older $19.99 495 83% 15k $297k (exactly $296,852) Sumo Digital
Synthwave Burnout $12.99 751 74% 23k $293k (exactly $292,665) Whale Rock Games
Exo Rally Championship $24.99 374 90% 11k $280k (exactly $280,388) Exbleative
VRacer Hoverbike $29.99 307 89% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) VertexBreakers
ExoCross older $19.99 437 68% 13k $262k (exactly $262,069) iRacing.com Motorsport Simulations, iRa… (iRacing.com Motorsport Simulations, iRacing)
BREAK ARTS III $17.99 334 80% 10k $180k (exactly $180,260) MercuryStudio
Infinity: HexaDome Tactics $19.99 92 75% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) Blindspot Games
Tower Tag $9.99 180 90% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,946) Steinfatt GmbH
FUTA FIGHT & FUCK 🥊 $14.99 115 92% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) BanzaiProject
Moto Rush Reborn $12.99 43 97% 1.3k $17k (exactly $16,757) Baltoro Games
Project Hover · EA $9.99 27 88% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Ulysses Graphics
The Last Golfer $19.99 12 91% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) Karthik Subramanyam, Andrew Laing

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.