Do I ship it?

GamesParkourParkour + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Parkour game?

Parkour + Sci-fi

Of 87 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Parkour game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 170 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×677 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 170 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 170 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Parkour + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 87
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $2.4k → $538 → $1.5k → $1.0k → $359 → $959 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Parkour + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 87
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $3.2k (exactly $3,237)
Top 5% $425k (exactly $425,274)
Developers, 2 yr 87
Released games 304
Announced 170
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Parkour
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Parkour; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Platformer, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 25,558 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 170 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Parkour with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Walking SimulatorFair38 devs · median $719 · 32 announced
  2. + Combat RacingFair26 devs · median $719 · 23 announced
  3. + Precision PlatformerLong shot310 devs · median $359 · 293 announced
  4. + MetroidvaniaPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  5. + SkateboardingPoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds9 devs · median $4.2k · 33 announced
  7. + Hack and SlashPoor odds18 devs · median $3.4k · 72 announced
  8. + Dark FantasyPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 37 announced
  9. + ModernPoor odds10 devs · median $3.1k · 24 announced
  10. + CatsPoor odds15 devs · median $3.1k · 18 announced
  11. + DestructionPoor odds10 devs · median $2.9k · 27 announced
  12. + StealthPoor odds26 devs · median $2.7k · 77 announced

All 109 pairs on the Parkour page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered older $59.99 101,879 96% 3.1M $183M (exactly $183,351,636) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ older $69.99 79,990 71% 2.4M $168M (exactly $167,955,003) Respawn
Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales older $49.99 39,234 93% 1.2M $59M (exactly $58,839,230) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Outlast older $14.99 104,353 96% 3.1M $47M (exactly $46,927,544) Red Barrels
Assassin's Creed 2 older $19.99 57,661 89% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,579,302) Ubisoft Montreal
BONEWORKS older $29.99 34,141 92% 1.0M $31M (exactly $30,716,658) Stress Level Zero
Star Wars Outlaws $69.99 12,268 71% 368k $26M (exactly $25,759,120) Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio
Mirror's Edge™ older $19.99 31,195 87% 936k $19M (exactly $18,707,642) DICE
MOTORSLICE $19.99 5,467 85% 164k $3.3M (exactly $3,278,560) Regular Studio
VHOLUME $8.00 2,992 97% 90k $718k (exactly $718,080) Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels… (Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels Tiercelin)
EMPULSE · EA $9.99 1,701 60% 51k $510k (exactly $509,790) 1047 Games
CICADAMATA" $9.99 1,419 96% 43k $425k (exactly $425,274) ✿ flowergarden
Steel Seed $39.99 339 78% 10k $407k (exactly $406,698) Storm in a Teacup
Aphelion $29.99 303 63% 9.1k $273k (exactly $272,609) DON'T NOD
BAIONLENJA · EA $12.99 510 97% 15k $199k (exactly $198,747) BAION
BLACKSHARD $14.99 432 91% 13k $194k (exactly $194,270) Redlock Studio, Enclave
CYBERMATRIX $12.00 127 89% 3.8k $46k (exactly $45,720) Tim Murich

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.