Do I ship it?

GamesRhythmRhythm + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Rhythm game?

Rhythm + Sci-fi

Of 59 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Rhythm game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 88 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×616 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 88 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 88 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $539 → $1.2k → $2.7k → $5.8k → $359 → $1.3k → $1.2k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Rhythm + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $809 (exactly $809)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,584)
Top 5% $293k (exactly $292,665)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 183
Announced 88
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Rhythm; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 28,521 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $810, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 88 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games
EZ2ON REBOOT : R older $44.99 5,972 91% 179k $8.1M (exactly $8,060,408) Neonovice Co., Ltd., SQUARE PIXELS
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro
Rez Infinite older $24.99 1,166 91% 35k $874k (exactly $874,150) Monstars Inc., Resonair
Synthwave Burnout $12.99 751 74% 23k $293k (exactly $292,665) Whale Rock Games
ADEN $8.99 670 96% 20k $181k (exactly $180,699) takayakata
KAMITSUBAKI CITY ENSEMBLE older $3.99 1,448 70% 43k $173k (exactly $173,326) KAMITSUBAKI STUDIO, Studio Lalala
MUSYNX:RETURN $19.99 284 74% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) I-Inferno
Keylocker | Turn Based Cyberpunk Action $19.99 225 84% 6.8k $135k (exactly $134,932) Moonana
Archons $9.99 406 92% 12k $122k (exactly $121,678) BulletHell Studios
Dismantling Workshop of Bio-Girl $29.99 120 61% 3.6k $108k (exactly $107,964) 渡里laboratory
PROJEKT GODHAND $15.80 158 96% 4.7k $75k (exactly $74,892) Anarch Entertainment
Steel Century Groove $19.99 98 94% 2.9k $59k (exactly $58,771) Sloth Gloss Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.