Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Incremental game?

Incremental + Sci-fi

Of 179 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 290 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $290; 1 in 20 cleared $98k, ×207 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 290 games are announced against 142 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 290 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 179
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $3.6k → $1.1k → $597 → $1.2k → $1.3k → $898 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 179
Bottom 30% $282 (exactly $282)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $4.4k (exactly $4,404)
Top 5% $98k (exactly $98,116)
Developers, 2 yr 179
Released games 351
Announced 290
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 275% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Idler, Resource Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 5,229 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $290, median $720, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $98k.

3 in 10 developers made under $290. 8 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 290 games are announced against 142 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SPACEPLAN older $2.99 3,315 91% 99k $297k (exactly $297,356) Jake Hollands
Polda 7 older $17.99 496 92% 15k $268k (exactly $267,691) Zima software
The Last Cat in the Universe $6.99 1,153 95% 35k $242k (exactly $241,784) Apamate Studio, Diora
The Captain older $19.99 305 92% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Sysiac Games
Starvester $6.99 790 69% 24k $166k (exactly $165,663) Syphono4
Vanguard Galaxy · EA $8.99 565 90% 17k $152k (exactly $152,380) Bat Roost Games
CLICKOLDING older $2.99 1,662 81% 50k $149k (exactly $149,081) Strange Scaffold
Feed the Reactor $6.99 658 82% 20k $138k (exactly $137,983) Adam Travers
Vtuber Hack $54.99 83 74% 2.5k $137k (exactly $136,925) ベルゼブブ
Code: Terraform · EA $14.99 252 85% 7.6k $113k (exactly $113,324) AppsMafia
Dismantling Workshop of Bio-Girl $29.99 120 61% 3.6k $108k (exactly $107,964) 渡里laboratory
FEED THE AI $5.99 557 90% 17k $100k (exactly $100,093) Weird Kid Games
Minutescape $5.99 546 74% 16k $98k (exactly $98,116) Molter
IDLE_DIRECTIVE $4.99 505 86% 15k $76k (exactly $75,598) Kevinfu510

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.