Do I ship it?

GamesNaval CombatNaval Combat + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Naval Combat game?

Naval Combat + Sci-fi

Only 18 developers shipped a Sci-fi Naval Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Darkwater, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $780, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×472 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 29 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 29 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $899 (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Naval Combat + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $446 (exactly $446)
Median $776 (exactly $776)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 5% $296k (exactly $296,403)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 38
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 160% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Combat, Exploration, Flight
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Minimalist
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 1,147 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $780, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds11 devs · median $38k · 21 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefleet Gothic: Armada 2 older $19.99 9,701 74% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,690) Tindalos Interactive
Carrier Command: Gaea Mission older $32.99 805 51% 24k $797k (exactly $796,708) Bohemia Interactive
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
Ace of Seafood older $11.99 526 91% 16k $189k (exactly $189,202) Calappa Games
Submarine Titans older $4.99 348 86% 10k $52k (exactly $52,096) Ellipse Studios
Gemini Wars older $9.99 141 32% 4.2k $42k (exactly $42,258) Camel 101
Catharage $9.99 62 82% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) Björn Michalski
Stellar Sovereigns older $24.99 20 55% 600 $15k (exactly $14,994) Imagined Reality
INSANIO $9.99 48 66% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,386) somebody
Astra Protocol 2 older $6.99 35 82% 1.1k $7.3k (exactly $7,340) Slice Bar Games
A-Spec First Assault $14.99 9 55% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Digitum Software
Star Ash Fleet $9.99 8 50% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Redonleft
Fuel Cell · EA $9.99 8 100% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Efshapo
Ore Bastards · EA $8.99 4 75% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) INDIELLIGENT
Infinite Empire · EA $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Better Tools LLC
Idle Space Shooter $1.99 13 30% 390 $776 (exactly $776) Phantom Prophecy Games
Mk50TWL Vehicle Battler Custom Slider · EA $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) TimberWoodLumber Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.