Do I ship it?

GamesPlatformerPlatformer + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Platformer?

Platformer + Sci-fi

Of 420 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 759 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×533 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 759 games are announced against 247 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 759 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Platformer + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 420
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $1.3k → $1.2k → $899 → $1.5k → $449 → $599 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Platformer + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 420
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 5% $253k (exactly $253,399)
Developers, 2 yr 420
Released games 1,566
Announced 759
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, 2D Platformer
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 104,297 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 214 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 759 games are announced against 247 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  2. + PinballStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  3. + Combat RacingFair28 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  4. + FMVFair9 devs · median $899 · 10 announced
  5. + SimulationFair281 devs · median $628 · 235 announced
  6. + Grid-Based MovementFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  7. + AutomationFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  8. + Turn-Based TacticsLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $7.2k · 90 announced
  10. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $5.8k · 38 announced
  12. + SkateboardingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced

All 206 pairs on the Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
Nine Sols older $29.99 40,138 94% 1.2M $36M (exactly $36,112,159) RedCandleGames
Katana ZERO older $14.99 66,341 97% 2.0M $30M (exactly $29,833,548) Askiisoft
Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart older $59.99 11,529 90% 346k $21M (exactly $20,748,741) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
SANABI older $14.99 41,700 97% 1.3M $19M (exactly $18,752,490) WONDER POTION
Mirror's Edge™ older $19.99 31,195 87% 936k $19M (exactly $18,707,642) DICE
MOTORSLICE $19.99 5,467 85% 164k $3.3M (exactly $3,278,560) Regular Studio
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Revenge of the Savage Planet $29.99 2,845 86% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) Raccoon Logic Studios Inc.
POPUCOM $19.99 3,432 87% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) Hypergryph
Kotama and Academy Citadel $19.99 2,542 80% 76k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437) Atomstring Games
Terminator 2D: NO FATE $29.99 1,450 84% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,304,565) Bitmap Bureau
Neon Abyss 2 · EA $19.99 1,968 68% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,180,210) Veewo Games
Luna Abyss $29.99 923 86% 28k $830k (exactly $830,423) Kwalee Labs
VHOLUME $8.00 2,992 97% 90k $718k (exactly $718,080) Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels… (Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels Tiercelin)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.