Do I ship it?

GamesShoot 'Em UpShoot 'Em Up + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Sci-fi

Of 453 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 505 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $110; 1 in 20 cleared $69k, ×147 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 505 games are announced against 265 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 505 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 453
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $987 → $1.3k → $598 → $958 → $719 → $449 → $299 (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 453
Bottom 30% $105 (exactly $105)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,593)
Top 5% $70k (exactly $69,722)
Developers, 2 yr 453
Released games 1,563
Announced 505
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Retro, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 24,778 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $110, median $420, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $69k.

3 in 10 developers made under $110. 9 in 10 of the 213 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 505 games are announced against 265 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Subverse $39.99 13,781 66% 413k $17M (exactly $16,533,066) Studio FOW Interactive
Crysis 2 Remastered older $29.99 9,034 89% 271k $8.1M (exactly $8,127,890) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Crysis 3 Remastered older $29.99 7,731 88% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,581) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Furi older $19.99 11,246 90% 337k $6.7M (exactly $6,744,226) The Game Bakers
Journey To The Savage Planet older $29.99 5,674 87% 170k $5.1M (exactly $5,104,898) Typhoon
Raw Data older $39.99 2,036 81% 61k $2.4M (exactly $2,442,589) Survios
HUNTDOWN older $19.99 4,059 94% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,434,182) Easy Trigger Games
Out There Somewhere older $9.99 6,160 92% 185k $1.8M (exactly $1,846,152) MiniBoss
Lovers in a Dangerous Spacetime older $14.99 3,368 93% 101k $1.5M (exactly $1,514,590) Asteroid Base
Zombotron older $14.99 2,974 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,337,408) Ant.Karlov Games
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Iron Meat $19.99 982 96% 29k $589k (exactly $588,905) Ivan Valeryevich Suvorov, Retroware
TouHou Makuka Sai ~ Fantastic Danmaku Festival Part III $13.99 1,242 90% 37k $521k (exactly $521,267) 东方幕华祭制作组
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
XENOTILT: HOSTILE PINBALL ACTION $19.99 770 96% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) WIZNWAR, FLARB LLC
Earthion $19.99 483 95% 14k $290k (exactly $289,655) Ancient Corporation, Bitwave Games
Mech Havoc · EA $9.99 813 96% 24k $244k (exactly $243,656) Mid Development
Neon Inferno $19.99 378 92% 11k $227k (exactly $226,687) Zenovia Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.