Do I ship it?

GamesHex GridHex Grid + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Sci-fi

Of 44 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $48k, ×102 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 58 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 58 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $2.6k → $300 → $599 → $599 → $1.5k → $599 (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $4,047)
Top 5% $48k (exactly $48,279)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 120
Announced 58
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 4,921 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $900, 1 in 4 over $4.0k, 1 in 20 over $48k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
Galactic Civilizations IV older $39.99 2,207 72% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,647,738) Stardock Entertainment
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
Scythe: Digital Edition older $19.99 3,164 89% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) The Knights of Unity
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games
Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy $12.99 95 57% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) BrettspielWelt GmbH
Gunbot Diplomacy $4.99 186 86% 5.6k $28k (exactly $27,844) Sleepy Sentry
Tactical Annihilation $15.99 56 98% 1.7k $27k (exactly $26,863) B.G. Game Studio
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios
Xenowars $19.99 31 83% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) Strategeion Studios
Final Liberation: Warhammer Epic 40,000 (Classic) $5.99 88 87% 2.6k $16k (exactly $15,814) Holistic Design Inc
HexaScape: Cyber Defense $14.99 15 100% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Clockwork Origins

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.