Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Combat game?

Combat + Sci-fi

Of 940 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,925 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×676 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 1,925 games are announced against 543 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 1,925 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 940
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $776 → $899 → $897 → $1.2k → $898 → $449 (still earning) → $270 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 940
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $5.2k (exactly $5,248)
Top 5% $425k (exactly $424,588)
Developers, 2 yr 940
Released games 2,663
Announced 1,925
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 477,692 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 503 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,925 games are announced against 543 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered older $59.99 101,879 96% 3.1M $183M (exactly $183,351,636) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ older $69.99 79,990 71% 2.4M $168M (exactly $167,955,003) Respawn
Borderlands 2 older $19.99 210,364 89% 6.3M $126M (exactly $126,155,291) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (L… (Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
ARMORED CORE™ VI FIRES OF RUBICON™ older $59.99 66,987 91% 2.0M $121M (exactly $120,556,504) FromSoftware, Inc.
Dead Space older $59.99 62,997 90% 1.9M $113M (exactly $113,375,701) Motive
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II older $39.99 87,494 88% 2.6M $105M (exactly $104,966,552) DICE
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Killing Floor 3 $39.99 16,493 46% 495k $20M (exactly $19,786,652) Tripwire Interactive
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
Deep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core · EA $29.99 14,049 60% 421k $13M (exactly $12,639,885) Ghost Ship Games
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.