Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Sci-fi

Of 101 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 132 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×293 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 132 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 132 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 101
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $419 → $1.3k → $599 → $719 → $1.8k → $299 → $899 (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 101
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.5k (exactly $3,471)
Top 5% $139k (exactly $139,266)
Developers, 2 yr 101
Released games 247
Announced 132
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 5,711 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.4k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 132 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Metal Bringer $19.99 1,109 87% 33k $665k (exactly $665,067) ALPHAWING Inc.
Bubsy 4D $19.99 777 92% 23k $466k (exactly $465,967) Fabraz
CICADAMATA" $9.99 1,419 96% 43k $425k (exactly $425,274) ✿ flowergarden
Astronomics · EA $19.99 706 89% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) Numizmatic
Starstruck Vagabond older $19.99 559 86% 17k $335k (exactly $335,232) Ben 'Yahtzee' Croshaw
Maize older $9.99 793 88% 24k $238k (exactly $237,662) Finish Line Games
Boti: Byteland Overclocked older $19.99 295 68% 8.9k $177k (exactly $176,912) Purple Ray Studio
A Planet Full of Cats $7.99 581 89% 17k $139k (exactly $139,266) Devcats
World's End Club older $19.99 228 68% 6.8k $137k (exactly $136,732) IzanagiGames, Too Kyo Games, Grounding… (IzanagiGames, Too Kyo Games, Grounding Inc., ESQUADRA,inc.)
ROLLING STAR $11.99 216 96% 6.5k $78k (exactly $77,695) NUL2 STUDIO
Rusty Seas $19.99 89 100% 2.7k $53k (exactly $53,373) Don't Feed the Wuff
Panthalassa $13.99 98 97% 2.9k $41k (exactly $41,131) Meia Calça
Blood Facsimile · EA $17.99 59 98% 1.8k $32k (exactly $31,842) Rene McCarthy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.